Grain Highlights 27.08.2021

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada project the wheat production in Canada at 20.2 million tons in 2021/22 (-11.2 million tons compared to the previous estimate and 35.2 million tons in 2020/21), which is the lowest of all latest forecasts.

- In their August report, analysts from the IGC lowered their forecast for the world's wheat production to 781.7 million tons (-6.4 and 773.4). The wheat production in Canada will reach 24.5 million tons (28.5 and 35.2), 75 million tons in Russia (81 and 85.4), 46.2 million tons in the United States (47.5 and 49.7), 137.6 million tons in the EU (137.7 and 124.5), 109.5 million tons in India (108.8 and 107.9), 32 million tons in Ukraine (29.5 and 25.4) and 30.1 million tons in Australia (28.9 and 33.3). World's wheat exports are expected to reach 189.2 million tons (-2.3 and 190.2), including 34.1 million tons from Russia (38.1 and 38.4), 18 million tons from Canada (20 and 27), 21.7 million tons from Australia (20.5 and 23), 34.5 million tons from the EU (33.6 and 30.4), 7 million tons from Kazakhstan (6.5 and 8.1), 22.5 million tons from Ukraine (20.9 and 16.9) and 3.1 million tons from India (2.4 and 2.5). World's ending wheat stocks are estimated at 277.7 million tons (280 and 279).

- In their August report, analysts from the IGC lowered their forecast for the world rapeseed production to 70.9 million tons (-2.2 compared to July and 72.1 compared to 2020/21). The rapeseed production in Canada will be 16 million tons (-2.8 and 18.7), 4.5 million tons in Australia (4.2 and 4.1), 2.8 million tons in Ukraine (2.7 and 2.7). World's total rapeseed exports will reach 14.2 million tons (16.3 and 17.6), including 7.5 million tons from Canada (9.9 and 10.8), 3.6 million tons from Australia (3.3 and 3.5), 2.5 million tons from Ukraine (2.4 and 2.4). World's ending rapeseed stocks are projected at 3 million tons (3 and 3.4).

- As of August 27, 2021, 20.99 million hectares of wheat have been harvested in Russia, 64.1 million tons of wheat have been harvested at an average yield of 3.05 tons/hectare. A year earlier, the average yield was 3.53 tons/hectare. 6.35 million hectares were harvested with barley, 15.7 million tons of barley were harvested at an average yield of 2.47 tons/hectare (2.91). 42,600 hectares were harvested with sunseed, 50,900 tons of sunseed were harvested at an average yield of 1.2 tons/hectare (1.46).

- From 01.09.2021, the export tax on Russian wheat will reach 39.4 USD/ton (31.7 now) and the export tax on barley will be 27 USD/ton (26.6). The export tax on corn will be 51.6 USD/ton (49.6).

- On Thursday, commodity funds in Chicago were net sellers of 3,000 soybean contracts and net buyers of 6,500 wheat contracts.

- Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada project the wheat production in Canada at 20.2 million tons in 2021/22 (-11.2 million tons compared to the previous estimate and 35.2 million tons in 2020/21), which is the lowest of all latest forecasts. Wheat exports are projected at 14.1 million tons (-8.3 and 27.1) and domestic consumption is estimated at 8.6 million tons (-0.2 million tons compared to 2020/21). The barley production is expected at 7.5 million tons (-3.4 and 10.7) and barley exports are projected at 2.1 million tons (-1.7 and 4.3). Domestic barley consumption is expected at 5.7 million tons (7.2 in 2020/21). The corn production will reach 14.2 million tons (-0.1 and 13.6). The canola production is predicted to reach 15 million tons (-4.9 and 18.7) and canola consumption is estimated at 8.2 million tons (-1.9 and 10.4). Canola exports are expected to reach 7 million tons (-2.9 and 10.9). The soybean production is expected at 6 million tons (-0.2 and 6.4) and soybean exports is expected to reach 4.1 million tons (-0.2 and 4.6).

- According to Conab's forecast, the soybean production in Brazil will reach a record 141.261 million tons in 2021/22 (+3.9% compared to 2020/21) with 39.91 million hectares (+3.6%) sown. Soybean exports are estimated at 87.58 million tons (83.42). The corn production is expected to reach 115.9 million tons (+33.8%), corn areas are predicted at 20.6 million hectares (+3%) and corn export are estimated at 39 million tons (23.5).

- Authorities in Indonesia increased the export tax on unrefined palm oil for September from 93 USD/ton to 166 USD/ton.