Grain Highlights 20.05.2022

As of 19.05.2022, the sowing of spring crops in Ukraine was carried out on 11.845 million hectares, which is 70% of the previous year, including 5.6 million hectares of spring cereals (75%).

- In their May report, IGC analysts lowered their forecast for the world wheat production in 2022/23 to 769 million tons (779.9 tons in April and 781.2 tons in 202122). Argentina's production will be 19.6 million tons (21.2 and 22.1). Wheat production in the EU is projected at 134.9 million tons (135.5 and 138.1), 13.2 million tons in Kazakhstan (13.5 and 11.8), 46.8 million tons in the United States (49.9 and 44.8) and 105 million tons in India (111.3 and 109.6). World's wheat exports will be 194 million tons (193.1 and 193.6), including 24.7 million tons from Australia (22.5 and 25), 22.8 million tons from Canada (21.5 and 24.7), 40 million tons from the EU (38 and 33.8), 37.1 million tons from Russia (34.3 and 33.1), 21.6 million tons from the United States (22.2 and 21.7), 10 million tons from Ukraine (11 and 18.8), 7.8 million tons from Kazakhstan (7 and 7.2) and 4.9 million tons from India (9.5 and 7.9). The world's ending wheat stocks will be 270.9 million tons (276.9 and 282.1), including 16.1 million tons in the United States  (18.5 and 18.2), 14.7 million tons in Russia (15.9 and 11.2), 11.3 million tons in EU (12.3 and 15.1), 3.9 million tons in Canada (5.1 and 3.8), 3.2 million tons in Australia (3.4 and 6.4), 2.9 million tons in Argentina (1.8 and 3), 7.9 million tons in Ukraine (6.4 and 7.1) and 16.9 million tons in India (15.9 and 21.4).

- In their May report, IGC analysts lowered their forecast for the world corn production to 1.183 million tons (1.197 in April and 1.213 in 20121/22). The production in Argentina will be 60.6 million tons (63.7 and 57), 70.7 million tons in the EU (71 and 70.3), 367.3 million tons in the United States (376.6 and 383.9). World corn exports are projected at 166.3 million tons (170.9 and 174.2), including 10 million tons from Ukraine (16.6 and 21) and 61 million tons from the United States (60.1 and 65.5). The world's ending corn stocks are expected at 269.1 million tons (265.1 and 285.2), including 34.1 million tons in the United States (30.6 and 35.3), 9.2 million tons in Ukraine (4.8 and 9.4) and 2.5 million tons in Argentina (1.8 and 4.1).

- In the week starting on 25.05.2022, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 110.5 USD/ton (111.9 in the previous week) and the export tax on barley will be 76.5 USD/ton (unchanged). The export tax on corn will be 76.5 USD/ton (77.3).

- As of 19.05.2022, the sowing of spring crops in Ukraine was carried out on 11.845 million hectares, which is 70% of the previous year, including 5.6 million hectares of spring cereals (75%). 188,600 hectares have been sown with spring wheat (91.5%), 927,500 hectares with spring barley (98.2%) and 4.17 million hectares (76.2%) with corn. 3.94 million hectares (76.8%) have been sown with sunseed.

- The strong and prolonged drought in France will reduce the yields of all winter crops below average. Over the period of March - June, the precipitation was 60 l/sqm compared to the usual 200 l/sqm.

- The European Parliament has approved duty-free imports of the full range of Ukrainian agricultural products for a period of one year.

- The US government is considering a temporary lifting of the ban on the export of potassium fertilizers from Belarus, in exchange for the export of Ukrainian products through Belarus to Lithuania (Klaipeda port).

- The authorities in Argentina have approved an increase in the limit for the export of corn of 5 million tons for the season 2021/22 to a total of 35 million tons. The government expects a production of 57 million tons, 44% of which has already been harvested.

- The authorities in India will most likely allow the export of some wheat to ports in the country, which remained blocked after the sudden introduction of the export tax.

- The Ministry of Agriculture of India has lowered its forecast for the 2022 wheat production in the country by 4.4% to 106.41 million tons.

- The authorities in Indonesia will introduce certain conditions for the sale of palm oil in the country, with the aim of ensuring the supply of 10 million tons consumed annually.

- The Moroccan government has informed that the country's wheat stocks are sufficient to meet consumption for the next 4 months. According to the USDA, wheat imports in the country will be 7 million tons in 2022/23 (+1.8) and wheat production will be 2.25 million tons (7.54).