Grain Highlights 17.02.2023

18 Feb, 2023
Grain Highlights 17.02.2023
As of February 16, 2023, 11.23 million hectares of grain crops were harvested in Ukraine, and 53.88 million tons of grain were harvested. Corn was harvested on 94% of the areas and 26.53 million tons of corn were harvested.

- In the week of February 22-28, the export tax on Russian wheat increased to 5,177.2 rubles/ton (4,653.5 a week earlier), the export tax on barley rose to 3,717 rubles/ton (3,209.1) and the export tax on corn will be 2,199.7 rubles/ton (1,670). The prices at which the export taxes were calculated are 304.7 USD/ton for wheat, 261.1 USD/ton for barley and 231.6 USD/ton for corn.

- From the beginning of the season to 17.02.2023, 30,014 million tons of grain were exported from Ukraine (41,958 a year earlier), including 3,043 million tons in February (3,488). Wheat exports were 10.71 million tons (17,742), barley exports were 1,981 million tons (5,568) and corn exports reached 17.21 million tons (18,215).

- Mexico has purchased 213,300 tons of corn from the United States. The authorities have decided not to impose a ban on the use of GM corn for animal feed.

- As of February 12, 2023, 17% of the planned areas were sown with second corn crop in Brazil (30% a year earlier). In Paraná, 12% of the areas have been sown (28%), and 34% have been sown in Mato Grosso (55%).

- Early frosts in Argentina may damage soybean and corn crops in the country's main producing areas. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange predicts a soybean production of 38 million tons and a corn production of 44.5 million tons.

- According to CNGOIC's estimate, the weekly (week ended 13.02.2023) soybean processing in China reached 2.1 million tons (+61% compared to last week and +212% compared to the previous year). Stocks of soybeans in the country were 4.7 million tons (-12% for the week and +18% compared to the previous year), soymeal stocks were 610,000 tons (+32% and +90%) and soyoil stocks reached 680,000 tons (-1% and -16%).

- In 2022/23 (July - June), India's food grain production will reach 324 million tons, which is a new record and 8 million tons higher than 2021/22. Rice production is expected at 131 million tons of rice, wheat production is estimated at 112 million tons and 28 million tons of legumes will be record.

- In their February report, IGC analysts raised their forecast for the 2022/23 world wheat production to 796.1 million tons (795.6 in January and 781.1 in 2021/22), including 14 million tons in Kazakhstan (13.7 and 11.8). World wheat exports will be 196.6 million tons (194.1 and 196.7), including 27.7 million tons from Australia (27.2 and 27.6), 8.9 million tons from Kazakhstan (8.3 and 8.4), 43.6 million tons from Russia (42.1 and 33.1) and 20.8 million tons from the United States (21.3 and 22). World ending stocks will reach 281.7 million tons (280.6 and 274.8), including 15.6 million tons in the EU (14.9 and 15.8), 15.9 million tons in the United States (15.4 and 19), 138.7 million tons in China (138.2 and 133), 4 million tons in Australia (4.5 and 2.1), 4.8 million tons in Canada (5 and 3.7) and 17.5 million tons in Russia (19 and 11.3).

- In their February forecast, IGC analysts forecast a world soybean production of 378.3 million tons (-6.2 million tons compared to January and 355.8 in 2021/22). The soybean production in Argentina will reach 37.5 million tons (42 and 45), soybean production in the United States is estimated at 116.4 million tons (118.3 and 121.5), production in Paraguay is expected at 9.3 million tons (10 and 4.3), soybean production in Brazil will reach 149.5 million tons (149 and 126.4) and the soybean production in India is expected to reach 14 million tons (12.9 and 13). World soybean exports will reach 166.8 million tons (167.8 and 155.3), including 2.5 million tons in Argentina (3.9 and 6.1), 54.4 million tons in United States (55 and 58.9), 6 million tons in Paraguay (6.3 and 2.2), 92.8 million tons in Brazil (90.9 and 77.2), 4.3 million tons in Canada ( 4 and 4.2) and 2 million tons in Ukraine (1.8 and 1.4). Ending soybean stocks in the world will be 49.2 million tons (53.8 and 44.8), including 29.2 million tons in China (30.5 and 28.5), 4.2 million tons in Brazil (5.6 and 1.9), 5.2 million tons in the United States (6 and 6.7), 0.6 million tons in Canada (0.9 and 0.7), 0.9 million tons in Ukraine (1.7 and 0.7) and 0.4 million tons in Paraguay (0.5 and 0.5).