SovEcon has revised its forecast for wheat production in Russia, suddenly increasing it by 5 million tons to 92.1 million tons (up from the previous estimate of 87.1 million tons). The barley production is expected to be 20.9 million tons (compared to 18.6 million tons), and corn production is projected at 14.8 million tons (up from 14.6 million tons). The total grain production is set to reach 142.2 million tons (compared to 133.1 million tons).

During the period from August 1 to August 20, grain exports from Russia have reached 4.4 million tons (compared to 3.9 million tons the previous year), including 3.8 million tons of wheat (+17%), 540,000 tons of barley (-4.6%), and 79,500 tons of corn (+1.7%). Egypt purchased 358,000 tons of wheat, Kenya bought 345,000 tons, Turkey acquired 302,000 tons (a decrease of 45%), and Bangladesh purchased 214,000 tons.

The Russian government will extend the export tax on Russian sunflower seeds, sunflower oil, and sunflower meal until August 31, 2024. The current tax on sunflower seeds is set at 50%, but not less than $320 USD per ton. Over the next 12 months, the duty will be calculated in rubles.

According to the latest forecast by IKAR, grain exports from Russia in 2023/24 are projected to reach 63 million tons, including 48.5 million tons of wheat. The total grain production is expected to be 139 million tons, with wheat production accounting for 89.5 million tons.

Turkish President Erdogan is set to visit Russia for talks with Putin regarding the extension of the grain corridor. Erdogan will propose a new approach to the grain deal and suggest Turkey's mediation to resolve the conflict with Ukraine.

According to the forecast by APK-Inform, the rapeseed production in Ukraine is expected to be 4.2 million tons in 2023 (+17% compared to 2022). Exports are projected to reach 3.8 million tons (+10%).

Mexico will not make changes to the current regime for importing corn, despite pressure from the US.

According to Conab data as of August 19, 2023, the harvesting campaign of the second corn production in Brazil has been completed on 79% of the total areas (+7% for the week and 90% compared to the previous year). Wheat harvesting has been completed on 5% of the total areas (+1% for the week and 4% compared to the previous year).

In July, China's soybean imports from Brazil reached 9.2 million tons (+32% compared to the previous year). Cumulative deliveries for the year amount to 38.9 million tons (+12%), accounting for 63.5% of the total soybean imports. Soybean imports from the USA in July were 142,150 tons (-63%), and cumulative imports for the year were 19.9 million tons (+11%), accounting for 31.9%.

In July, China's corn imports from the United States were 1.7 million tons (+15%), followed by Ukraine with 1.1 million tons, Bulgaria with 393,600 tons, and Brazil with 115,500 tons.