The dry and warm weather during the past week in the United States accelerated the spring wheat harvesting campaign. As of September 3, 2023, spring wheat has been harvested from 74% of the areas (compared to 68% the previous year and 77% on average for the last five years). The planting of winter wheat for the 2024/25 crop has started during the past week. Soybean crops for the 2023/24 crop are in good to excellent condition on 53% of the areas (down 5% for the week and 57% lower than the previous year), while 53% of the corn crops are also in good to excellent condition (down 3% and 1%).

Yesterday, Chicago commodity funds were net buyers of 3,000 corn contracts and 1,500 wheat contracts and net sellers of 2,500 soybean contracts.

StoneX forecasts a record soybean production of 163.63 million tons in Brazil for 2023/24 (+156,000 tons from the August forecast and +3.8% compared to 2022/23). Soybean areas will be 45.14 million hectares (+1 million hectares compared to 2022/23). The second corn production for 2022/23 will be 109.1 million tons (+0.8). The first corn production for 2023/24 is expected to reach 28.2 million tons (-1.5% from August) with an area of 4.07 million hectares.

According to data from the Rosario Grain Exchange, the recent rainfall in Argentina (especially in central regions) will significantly improve the condition of wheat crops. Rainfall ranged from 30 to 100 mm, and more is expected.

In September, rainfall in China's Heilongjiang province will be 20-50% above normal. In August, the province experienced significant floods. These unfavorable conditions will reduce grain crop yields. The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture forecasts a corn production of 282.34 million tons for 2023/24. However, due to the floods, some analysts expect a decrease in this estimate.