Grain Higlights 05.12.2023

Abares has raised the forecast for winter wheat production in Australia by 0.1 million tons to 25.5 million tons (-37% compared to 2022/23).

Over the past week, the price of sunseed oil in Ukrainian ports has decreased by 30–40 USD/ton to 770 USD/ton, leading many processors to halt sales. Soyoil remains stable for the third week, priced at 630–670 EUR/ton.

According to the latest forecast from the European Commission for 2023/24, soft wheat consumption in the EU is projected to be 102.1 million tons (+1 compared to the November estimate and +3.2 compared to 2022/23). Ending wheat stocks are expected to be 18.3 million tons (-0.8 and 19.4). Wheat production is estimated at 125.6 million tons (+0.1 and -0.2). Corn production is expected to reach 59.9 million tons (53.1 in 2022/23).

According to Statistics Canada's estimate for 2023, the wheat production in Canada reaches 32 million tons, the lowest level in the past 6 years (29.8 from the September estimate). The spring wheat production is 24.8 million tons (22.6), hard wheat production reaches 4 million tons (the highest level in the past 13 years but below the September estimate), and canola production was 18.3 million tons (17.4 and -2% from last year).

Abares has raised the forecast for winter wheat production in Australia by 0.1 million tons to 25.5 million tons (-37% compared to 2022/23). The barley production will be 10.8 million tons (-4% compared to the average level of the last 10 years). Canola production is expected to reach 5.5 million tons (-33% compared to 2022/23 and at the level of the average for the last 10 years). The sorghum production is projected at 1.5 million tons (-45%).

Bangladesh is looking to purchase 50,000 tons of milling wheat of unspecified origin.