- The production in both southern Russian districts has decreased by 2.1 million tons to 35.6 million tons due to the drought. Precipitation in the central region and the Volga region is good, and the production will reach 21.3 million tons and 18.65 million tons, respectively. If the drought in the south continues through May, the production estimate will be further reduced by another 3 - 4 million tons to 87 - 88 million tons. Frosts expected during the period of May 9 - 10 may additionally decrease the production forecast by 1 - 2 million tons. Given the scale of the damage from the first wave of cooling on May 4 - 5 and the forecasted temperatures for May 9 - 10, the reductions in the production in the affected regions are, to say the least, ludicrous.
- During the week of May 15 - 21, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 3,170.7 rubles/ton (3,227.7 the previous week). Barley and corn remain duty-free.
- As of May 6, 2024, spring crop planting in Russia has been completed on 16.9 million hectares or 30.2% of the planned areas, which is 324,000 hectares more than the previous year. Frosts in the central, southern, and Volga regions have halted planting, which is a factor contributing to lower yields. Corn in the country has been planted on 52.8% of the planned areas. Sunseed has been planted on 34% of the planned areas. Many of these areas will need to be replanted due to freezing.
- From July 1, 2023, to May 8, 2024, Ukraine has exported 42.406 million tons of grain (42.647 the previous year), including 1.047 million tons in May (0.761 previously). Wheat exports amounted to 16.173 million tons, barley exports reached 2.23 million tons (2.482), corn exports were 23.522 million tons (25.222). From May 1 - 6, Ukraine exported 14,700 tons of sunseed oil (12,300).
- According to the FAS USDA forecast for 2024/25, wheat production in Kazakhstan will reach 15.8 million tons (12.1 in 2023/24), with exports at 11.1 million tons.
- As of May 5, 2024, 94.3% of the soybean areas in Brazil have been harvested (+3.8% for the week). Floods in the southern part of the country hinder the harvesting and cause damage. Trucks transporting grain from Rio Grande do Sul to São Paulo take detours to avoid flooded roads, increasing their routes by up to 400 km.
- According to FAS USDA data, at the beginning of 2024/25, sunseed oil stocks in Argentina reach 224,000 tons (265,000 in 2023/24 and 282,000 in 2022/23). Production for the new season is expected at 1.5 million tons (1.6 in 2023/24), with exports at 850,000 tons (-15%). Soymeal production will be 1.55 million tons (1.643), with exports at 1.1 million tons (0.875).
- In March, Australia exported 2.57 million tons of wheat, which is 12% more than February (2.29), and in March 2023 - 3.8 million tons according to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. In the first half of the season, exports amounted to 11.35 million tons (16.5).
- According to FAS USDA data, initial wheat stocks for the 2024/25 season in Serbia will exceed 1 million tons, which is considered a high level. Wheat areas for 2024/25 will be 625,000 hectares (-14% compared to 2023/24), with a wheat production of 3.1 million tons (3.4). Wheat exports are projected to reach 1.5 million tons.
- Jordan has canceled a tender for the purchase of 120,000 tons of milling wheat. The next tender will take place on 14.05.2024, with delivery scheduled for June - August.