- SovEcon has lowered its forecast for wheat exports from Russia in 2024/25 to 46.1 million tons (from 47.8 in the previous estimate). The production forecast remains unchanged at 80.7 million tons. Barley exports will be 3.1 million tons (from 7), and corn exports will be 3.6 million tons (from 6.9). The barley production will be 18.6 million tons (from 21.2 in 2024), and the corn production will be 14.6 million tons (from 16.6). The total grain production is estimated at 127.4 million tons (from 144.9).
- In the upcoming week, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 1,818.2 rubles/ton (from 2,492.8 a week earlier). Corn and barley will remain without export duties.
- According to IKAR's forecast for 2024/25, the oilseed production in Russia will reach a record 29.7 – 31.1 million tons, including 16.1 – 19.7 million tons of sunflower seeds and 4.7 – 4.95 million tons of rapeseed.
- Starting from 01.07.2024, import taxes on grains and oilseeds from Russia and Belarus will take effect in the EU. The import tax on soft wheat will be 95 EUR/ton. The import tax on durum wheat will be 148 USD/ton, and the import tax on barley will be 93 USD/ton.
- During the period from June 1 to June 28, Ukraine exported 3.6 million tons of grain (3.7 a year earlier). Since the beginning of the season, exports have reached 50.5 million tons (from 49).
- In their June report, MARS analysts forecast an average yield of soft wheat in the EU in 2024 of 5.86 tons/hectare (5.86 average over the last five years), durum wheat average yield is expected to reach 3.3 tons/hectare (3.45), winter barley yield is projected at 5.96 tons/hectare (5.91), spring barley yield is estimated at 4.29 tons/hectare (4.08), corn yield is estimated at 7.55 tons/hectare (7.35), rapeseed yield is forecasted at 3.16 tons/hectare (3.17), sunseed yield is predicted at 2.2 tons/hectare (2.15), and average soybean yield will be 2.91 tons/hectare (2.73).
- On Friday, FranceAgriMer downgraded its assessment of the condition of soft wheat in the country, rating 60% of crops as good to excellent (from 62% a week earlier and 81% a year earlier). Corn is now sown after a significant delay, with 81% of crops in good to excellent condition (from 86% a year earlier). Corn is in good condition due to the heavy rains that have deteriorated the quality of the wheat crops.
- The European Commission forecasts a wheat production in Bulgaria in 2024 of 6.34 million tons, barley production is expected at 831,000 tons, and corn production is projected at 2.9 million tons (from 3.65 in the previous estimate). The total production of the three crops will be 10.1 million tons (from 10.7). The rapeseed production will be under 0.2 million tons, and sunseed production will reach 2.1 million tons.
- StatsCan predicts that in 2024, wheat acreage in Canada will reach 26.641 million acres (from 26.93 in 2023). Rapeseed acreage will reach 22 million acres (from 22.08).
- In June, rainfall in India was 11% below normal. Except for the southern region, rainfall was scarce. Wheat is mainly grown in the northern part of the country.
- In the second half of June, 450,000 tons of feed wheat were sold in Asia. Black Sea wheat is the most attractive due to its low prices.
- On Friday, South Korea's FLC canceled tenders for the purchase of wheat and corn. The lowest prices for wheat were 271.75 USD/ton C&F, and for corn, 238.99 USD/ton C&F. The tenders were canceled due to high prices.
- Saudi Arabia purchased 235,000 tons of wheat with 12.5% protein content, planning for 595,000 tons. The deal was priced at 265.35 USD/ton C&F, with delivery from September to December.