Grain Highlights 19.09.2024

19 Sep, 2024
Grain Highlights 19.09.2024
In 2023/24, Ukraine's corn exports reached nearly 30 million tons. As of September 1, 2024, the country's corn reserves are very low, amounting to 600,000 tons.

- Local analysts expect Ukraine's corn production in 2024 to reach 21-22 million tons, with domestic consumption at 5 million tons. The export potential will be 15-17 million tons. Spain is actively buying and increased the price to 222-224 USD/ton at the end of last week, compared to 215 USD/ton at the beginning. Portugal is also joining the race for purchases. Despite the interest, competition from the United States is very strong due to lower prices. US production is 2-3 USD/ton cheaper.

- In the new season, Kazakhstan will set an absolute record for wheat supply – 20 million tons. A similar quantity was recorded in 2011 – 19 million tons. Around 9 million tons of wheat will be exported.

- According to Anec's forecast, soybean exports from Brazil in September will reach 5.82 million tons (7.97 in August and 5.55 in September 2023). From September 1-15, exports were 3 million tons (3.5 in September 2023). Soymeal exports will reach 2.02 million tons (2.1 and 1.91), with exports from September 1-15 reaching 993,000 tons (880,000 in 2023). Corn exports will reach 6.63 million tons, with potential for 6.8 million tons under favorable conditions (6.42 and 9.43). From September 1-15, exports were 3.08 million tons (4.22).

- According to Conab's forecast, Brazil's soybean production for 2024/25 will be 166.3 million tons (+12.8% compared to 2023/24). The area planted with soybeans will increase by 3% to 47.4 million hectares. The total grain and oilseed production will be 326.9 million tons.

- In August, China imported 410,000 tons of wheat, the lowest amount for the month in many years. Corn imports were 430,000 tons (-64% compared to August 2023). From January to August, wheat imports totaled 10.49 million tons (+10%), while corn imports amounted to 12.56 million tons (-16%).

- Indonesia is lowering the export duty on palm oil to stimulate exports. As of September 21, 2024, it will be 7.5% of the base price or 63 USD/ton, down from 90 USD/ton. The total export tax in September is 142 USD/ton, compared to 118 USD/ton in August.