- Starting from October 2, 2024, the export tax on Russian corn will be 2,786.2 rubles per ton (compared to 292.7 rubles a week earlier). This tenfold increase is a clear indication of some form of export restriction. In the 2023/24 season, Russia exported 7 million tons of corn, with key buyers being Iran, Turkey, and Libya. The IKAR forecasts an export volume of 2.5 million tons for the current season. Last week, SovEcon reported that the corn production is expected to reach only 12 million tons (-29.5%), the lowest level since 2018.

- Between January and August, Russia exported 3.8 million tons of sunseed oil (-28% compared to the previous year). The largest buyers were India (35%), Turkey (14%), and China (13%).

- According to a forecast from Rusagrotrans, Russian wheat exports in October will reach 4.4 to 4.8 million tons (5.1 million tons in October 2023). In September, exports were 5.35 million tons (compared to a previous estimate of 5.47 million tons). The decline in September is attributed to reduced activity in the second half of the month.

- Strategie Grains has lowered its forecast for the EU sunseed production to 8.9 million tons (-0.4 million compared to August and 9.8 million in 2023). There is a significant drop in production in Romania and Bulgaria, marking the lowest level in 15 years. The agency points out that sunseed prices are likely to rise due to shortages and the upcoming ban on the import of soyoil and palm oil into the EU starting next year, linked to regulations aimed at curbing global deforestation.

- As of September 30, 2024, Kazakhstan has harvested 20 million tons of grain, with an average yield of 1.48 tons per hectare. Wheat accounts for 15.2 million tons, with a yield of 1.42 tons per hectare. Barley production reached 3.3 million tons.

- On September 27, 2024, the European Commission lowered its forecast for the EU soft wheat production to 114.6 million tons (from 116.1 million in the previous estimate). The corn production is expected to reach 60.1 million tons (compared to 61.6 million tons previously).

- Canada’s Ministry of Agriculture has raised its forecast for the 2024/25 canola production by 0.4 million tons to 19 million tons (compared to 19.2 million tons in 2023/24). Domestic canola consumption is projected to reach 12.2 million tons (+0.8 million, compared to 11.5 million previously). Ending stocks will be 2.5 million tons (+0.3 million, compared to 3.1 million tons).