Grain Highlights 11.10.2024

12 Oct, 2024
Grain Highlights 11.10.2024
Starting from 16.10.2024, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 1,872 rubles/ton (up from 1,328.3 a week earlier). The export tax on barley will be 392.8 rubles/ton (up from 229.5), and the export tax on corn will be 2,827.2 rubles/ton (up from 2,696.7).

- SovEcon has lowered its forecast for Russia's 2024 grain production from 124.4 million tons to 122.9 million tons. In 2021, the grain harvest was 121.3 million tons. Wheat production is expected to reach 81.5 million tons (down from 82.9), including 10.2 million tons from Siberia (down from 11.3). Barley production will be 16.5 million tons (down from 17.2), and corn production will reach 11.7 million tons (down from 12.2). In 2023, Russia’s grain production was 144.9 million tons, including 92.8 million tons of wheat.

- As of 10.10.2024, Ukraine has harvested 80% of its soybean acreage (6% more than the previous week), producing 4.8 million tons with an average yield of 2.17 tons per hectare, and the forecasted production is 6.8 million tons. Sunseed harvesting has been completed on 87% of the areas, with 8.8 million tons collected and an average yield of 2.04 tons per hectare. The sunseed production is expected to reach 12.5 million tons, but it is unclear how this will be achieved. By 10.10.2024, Ukraine had harvested 81% of its grain crops, collecting 40.161 million tons with an average yield of 4.45 tons per hectare. Corn harvesting campaign covers 48% of the areas, with 10.565 million tons gathered, averaging 5.38 tons per hectare. The corn production is estimated to be around 22 million tons, but with more rain in central and northern regions, higher yields may push the total to 23.5–24.5 million tons.

- Between 01.07 and 11.10.2024, Ukraine exported 11.739 million tons of grain (up from 7.42 million the previous year), including 1.291 million tons in October (up from 0.667 million). Wheat exports totaled 6.798 million tons (up from 3.762 million), barley exports were 1.551 million tons (up from 0.64 million), and corn exports reached 3.12 million tons (up from 2.902 million).

- As of 01.10.2024, Kazakhstan's oilseed stocks totaled 1.01 million tons (up from 0.967 million a year earlier), including 324,200 tons of sunseed (up from 322,000) and 240,100 tons of rapeseed (up from 163,000).

- Strategie Grains has raised its forecast for the EU's 2024/25 corn production by 0.2 million tons to 58.1 million tons (compared to 62.9 million tons in 2023/24). The wheat production is expected to be 114.4 million tons, the lowest in 12 years. Barley production is forecasted at 50.6 million tons (up slightly from 50.5 million).

- According to EIA data, U.S. ethanol production from 28.09 to 05.12.2024 reached 1.038 million barrels per day, the highest since 13.09.2024. Ethanol stocks were 22.154 million barrels (down from 23.459 million), the lowest since 08.12.2023.

- The Rosario Grain Exchange has reduced its forecast for Argentina's 2024/25 wheat production from 20.5 million tons to 19.5 million tons. The forecasts for corn and soybean production remain unchanged at 51–52 million tons and 52–53 million tons, respectively.

- By the end of December, palm oil stocks in Malaysia reached 2.01 million tons, up 6.93% from the end of August, marking an eight-month high. Crude palm oil production was 1.82 million tons (down 3.8%), while exports reached 1.54 million tons (up 0.93%).

- According to an Oil World forecast, the biofuel market will grow to 58 million tons by 2030, up from 16.5 million tons in 2023. The share of biofuels in transportation is expected to rise from 5.6% to 6.4%, reaching 215 billion kiloliters.