The EUR/USD currency pair rose to 1.0506. The price of US WTI light crude oil increased to $69.94 per barrel.

Oil prices increased on Tuesday. Investors are in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the OPEC+ meeting. The organization aims to end production cuts by the first quarter of 2025. However, the prospects of oversupply are putting pressure on prices. According to researchers and analysts, demand prospects remain weak, with China’s demand for "black gold" expected to peak as early as next year. This will further widen the gap between supply and demand. Against this backdrop, Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest exporter, is expected to reduce crude oil prices for Asian buyers to their lowest level in at least four years. Concerns that the US Federal Reserve may not lower interest rates at its December meeting are also limiting oil prices, overshadowing the positive signals from China.

Yesterday, March wheat futures in Chicago rose by 1/4 cent to $5.47 1/2 per bushel. Wheat futures in Chicago saw a slight increase, while in Paris, the rise was moderate. After favorable rainfall in November, drought conditions are once again strengthening in the US Wheat Belt. Japan is seeking to purchase 111,405 tons of wheat from Australia, Canada, and the U.S. Between July 1 and December 1, 2024, soft wheat exports from the EU totaled 9.48 million tons (down from 13.75 million tons in the same period last year). Jordan canceled a tender for 120,000 tons of milling wheat due to high prices. Heavy rains in southeastern Australia have raised concerns about the quality of the new wheat crop. In Russia, 37% of winter wheat crops are in poor condition as the season begins, increasing the risk of frost damage in the coming months. According to Rusagrotrans, wheat exports from Russia in December 2024 are projected at 4.1 million tons, following 4.4 million tons in November (compared to 3.49 million tons in November 2023). Indian farmers have completed wheat planting, covering 20 million hectares by November 29, 2024, up 6.6% from 2023. Data from the Canadian Grain Commission shows that in the first four months of the 2024/25 season, Canada exported 6.3 million tons of soft wheat (up from 5.51 million tons a year earlier). Durum wheat exports reached 1.3 million tons (+53%), barley exports were 0.8 million tons (+8%), canola exports reached 3.7 million tons (+91%), and soybean exports were 1.9 million tons (+43%). Total grain exports reached 16.6 million tons (+26%).

Yesterday, CBOT March corn futures fell by 1/4 cent to $4.32 1/4 per bushel. Corn futures in Chicago dropped slightly, while in Paris, they moderately increased. In the United States, there is still no timeline for approval of pure fuel 45Z. Ethanol is unlikely to play a role in ASF production soon, weakening corn’s position. However, U.S. corn consumption in the first two months of the season is at its highest level in six years. In October, 11.7 million tons of corn were used for ethanol production in the United States (-0.4% from September, +3% from October 2023). Corn imports into the EU are 10% higher than the previous season's levels.

Yesterday, Chicago January soybean futures increased by 6 1/2 cents to $9.91 3/4 per bushel. Soybean futures in Chicago, rapeseed futures in Paris, and canola futures in Canada all increased. In Brazil, rainfall continues sporadically, but there is no drought anywhere. Soybean crops are developing very well, with planting nearing completion and outpacing last year’s pace. Soybean imports into the EU are 12% higher than the previous year.

There are no significant market-moving developments at the moment. Attention is focused on the wheat harvesting in Australia and Argentina, as well as rainfall in South America, which is supporting the condition of corn and soybean crops.