Chicago opens the first Friday session of 2026 with grains mostly softer, as traders digest newly detailed U.S. farm aid rates, a fresh USDA export-sales batch, and updated Russia export expectations, all against a weather backdrop that is supportive in Brazil but still uneven in Argentina.
USDA’s long-awaited Farm Bridge Assistance details are a near-term sentiment driver for planting decisions and balance-sheet stress, with per-acre rates set at $39.35 for wheat, $44.36 for corn, and $30.88 for soybeans. While the package is framed as one-time relief, the market reads it as a signal about farm financial pressure under low crop prices and high input costs heading into spring planning.
The day’s demand pulse comes from USDA’s export-sales report for the week ending Dec. 18: soybean sales fell to 982.3k tons from the prior week’s 2,425k, all-wheat sales dropped to 194k tons, while corn sales rose to 2,224k tons from 1,744k. The mix is supportive for corn near-term, while wheat and soybeans start the session with a softer headline tone on weekly demand.
Corn also has a supportive spot headline after USDA reported a private sale of 132,000 MT of corn to South Korea, adding a demand offset as traders wait for export-sales reporting to fully normalize after holiday disruptions.
In the Black Sea, SovEcon raised its 2025/26 Russia wheat export forecast to 44.6 MMT on stronger shipment pace and improved margins, with total Russian grain exports now seen at 52.9 MMT. This keeps Russia a central pricing reference for global wheat, even as the note flags slow farmer selling and a strong ruble as continuing headwinds to even larger export upside.
Weather remains the key “repricing lever” into early January. The source highlights below-normal rainfall risk in the Pampas, with Argentina turning drier in central and southern areas after helpful northern rains, which can increase stress for developing corn and soybeans if soil moisture continues to slide. In contrast, Brazil stays broadly wet with more widespread showers supporting pod fill in soybeans and maturing corn, leaving the South America story supportive for Brazil but still risk-sensitive in Argentina.
Macro and product-market cross-currents are mixed. Malaysian palm oil is lower overnight, and the grain complex is also watching crush-side signals ahead of the USDA Fats & Oils update, with analysts expecting November soybean crush near 225.239 mbu and soyoil stocks near 1.906 billion lbs—inputs that can swing the soybean complex through meal/oil spreads.
Positioning keeps volatility risk elevated despite thin holiday participation. The source notes large spec net shorts in Chicago wheat and reports managed money shifting back to a small net long in corn, while open interest changes show corn adding contracts and soybeans modestly higher into year-end—conditions that can amplify headline reactions around export data, Russia news, and South America weather.
Wheat: Mar ’26 CBOT wheat is at $5.05 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents early. The session starts with pressure from weaker weekly wheat export sales and the market’s focus on large speculative short positioning, while Russia’s improved export outlook and Plains dryness risks remain the key counterweights.
Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn is at $4.37 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents early. Corn is weighing broader early weakness against a strong weekly export-sales figure and the reported 132,000 MT sale to South Korea, while Argentina’s drier trend is the main weather-support variable to monitor into mid-January.
Soybeans: Jan ’26 CBOT soybeans are at $10.27 1/2, down 3 cents early. Softer weekly soybean export sales and weaker veg-oil tone are near-term drags, while traders keep one eye on Brazil’s favorable pod-fill weather and the crush/oil-stocks data due later today for direction in meal and oil spreads.