Core Market Drivers

Wheat futures started the week under pressure, unable to extend last week’s gains. Chicago SRW contracts closed 4 to 7 cents lower, while KC HRW futures dropped 12 to 13 cents in the front months. Mar ’26 CBOT wheat settled at $5.69 1/2, down 4 cents, reflecting profit-taking and easing momentum after a strong prior-week rally.

Despite the price pullback, export fundamentals remained supportive. USDA reported 535,113 MT of wheat inspected for export in the week ending February 19, up 41.57% week-over-week and 37.37% above last year. Marketing year shipments now total 18.24 MMT, up 19.41% year-on-year, indicating solid underlying demand even as futures softened.

Corn futures closed steady to fractionally higher on Monday, with Mar ’26 CBOT corn finishing at $4.27 1/2, unchanged on the session. The CmdtyView national average cash price held at $3.94 1/2, underscoring stable interior demand.

Export demand provided firm support for corn. Weekly export inspections reached 2.05 MMT for the week ending February 19, the second-largest total of the marketing year and 71.91% above the same week last year. Marketing year shipments now stand 45.64% ahead of last year’s pace, reinforcing bullish demand momentum.

USDA also confirmed a private export sale of 125,000 MT of corn to Colombia, further underpinning demand strength. However, Brazil’s first crop harvest progress remains behind average at 28%, and second crop planting lags at 50%, though large production expectations continue to limit upside.

Soybeans closed 2 to 4 cents lower in nearby contracts, with Mar ’26 CBOT soybeans ending at $11.34 1/4, down 3 1/4 cents. Soymeal futures weakened, while soy oil posted gains of 47 to 61 points, reflecting diverging oilseed product dynamics.

Export inspections for soybeans were notably weaker, totaling 669,865 MT for the week ending February 19, down 44.9% from the prior week and 23.8% below last year. Marketing year exports now trail last year by 32.2%, highlighting ongoing competitiveness challenges relative to Brazil.

China’s soybean demand outlook added further uncertainty. Following the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling limiting tariff authority, analysts suggested China may be less compelled to purchase additional U.S. soybeans. With Brazilian supplies significantly cheaper and harvest advancing, trade participants remain cautious about sustained U.S. soybean export growth.

South American weather remains a high-impact variable. Flood risks in parts of Brazil contrast with dryness in Argentina, where crop conditions are improving but remain vulnerable. Forecast confidence is high over the next 10 days, though uncertainty increases thereafter.

Broader policy headlines added volatility. The Supreme Court decision on tariffs introduced new trade uncertainty, while USDA’s $12 billion farm assistance program aims to stabilize farm incomes amid persistent low commodity prices. Market participants are closely monitoring how trade tools and domestic support measures may influence global flows.

Crop Futures Wrap

Wheat:
Mar ’26 CBOT wheat closed at $5.69 1/2, down 4 cents. Profit-taking and improved Black Sea production outlooks pressured prices despite strong weekly export inspections.

Corn:
Mar ’26 CBOT corn settled at $4.27 1/2, unchanged. Strong export inspections and a private sale to Colombia balanced Brazilian supply expectations and steady interior pricing.

Soybeans:
Mar ’26 CBOT soybeans closed at $11.34 1/4, down 3 1/4 cents. Weak export inspections and China trade uncertainty offset support from firm soy oil and South American weather risk.