Chicago grains begin Monday mixed, with wheat slightly softer after last week’s sharp rally, corn modestly firmer on crude oil spillover, and soybeans under early pressure despite strength in bean oil. Traders are balancing renewed Middle East tensions, managed money positioning shifts, export pace data, and evolving South American weather as the new month opens.

Wheat is trading with 2 to 5 cent gains in hard red contracts, while soft red futures are weaker after Friday’s broad-based rally. Last week’s surge was driven in part by short covering, as managed money slashed 50,740 contracts from its net short in CBOT wheat, shrinking the position to 17,297 contracts — the smallest since October 2022. In Kansas City, funds flipped to a net long of 4,204 contracts, their first net long since August 2023, underscoring the magnitude of the positioning shift.

Export demand remains constructive but not explosive. Weekly wheat export commitments stand at 22.998 MMT, 14% ahead of last year and 94% of the USDA projection, slightly behind the 96% average pace. Over the weekend, Saudi Arabia purchased 794,000 MT in its tender, reinforcing global demand visibility and providing underlying support to the hard red complex.

Weather in key growing regions remains uneven. In the Central and Southern Plains, soil moisture is generally low despite a busy storm track forecast into next week, with eastern areas favored over the drier west. In the Black Sea, soil moisture is mixed after a winter of frequent but light showers, while Ukraine faces renewed frost risk that could impact up to 20% of some winter grain fields.

Corn futures are fractionally to 2 cents higher early Monday after posting solid gains Friday. Open interest rose sharply at the end of last week, suggesting fresh buying interest rather than short covering alone. Crude oil is up $5.07 following US/Israel strikes on Iran over the weekend, offering spillover support to ethanol-linked corn demand.

Export data shows corn commitments at 62.96 MMT, 29% above last year and 75% of the USDA forecast, slightly behind the 77% average pace. Actual shipments are running at 46% of the projection, 8 percentage points ahead of the historical average, reinforcing strong physical flow even as sales pace moderates. USDA also confirmed 257,000 tons of corn sold to unknown destinations for 2025/26.

Brazil’s first crop corn harvest is 36% complete, below last year’s 46% pace, while second-crop planting in the center-south is at 66%, well behind the 80% from 2025. That slower planting pace combined with subsoil moisture concerns keeps a weather premium embedded in the market.

Soybeans are down 5 to 7 cents Monday morning after a strong weekly advance. Managed money expanded its net long position by 20,591 contracts to 184,202, reflecting continued speculative confidence. However, beans are seeing pressure from uncertainty around US-China relations following weekend geopolitical events, tempering bullish sentiment.

US soybean export commitments stand at 35.65 MMT, down 19% year-on-year and at 83% of the USDA target, trailing the 91% average pace. Traders are watching today’s USDA Fats & Oils report, with January crush expected near 226.3–226.4 million bushels, a potential supportive input if confirmed.

South American supply remains a focal point. AgRural estimates Brazil’s soybean harvest at 39%, below last year’s 50%, and Safras trimmed its 2025/26 crop estimate to 177.72 MMT, though Rabobank raised its projection to 181 MMT. The divergence underscores ongoing uncertainty around final output as weather stress in southern Brazil offsets generally favorable conditions elsewhere.

May ’26 CBOT Wheat closed Friday at $5.91 1/2, up 17 cents, and is currently down 1 1/4 cents. Early trade reflects profit-taking after aggressive short covering, with export demand and Black Sea frost risk providing support.

May ’26 Corn closed at $4.48 1/2, up 5 cents, and is currently up 1/2 cent. Crude oil strength, firm export commitments, and slower Brazilian planting are offering underlying support.

May ’26 Soybeans closed at $11.70 3/4, up 7 1/4 cents, and are currently down 6 cents. Managed money length, export pace concerns, and geopolitical uncertainty are pressuring beans, while biofuel-linked strength in soybean oil helps cushion downside at the start of Monday’s session.