Chicago grains closed lower on Monday, led by a sharp pullback in wheat after last week’s fund-driven rally, while corn eased despite solid export inspections and soybeans retreated even as January crush exceeded expectations. Traders balanced export flow data, South American production revisions, Black Sea frost risk, and energy spillover at the start of March.

Wheat futures were in give-back mode across all three markets. Chicago SRW contracts fell 14 to 17 cents, with Kansas City down 5 to 6 cents and Minneapolis slipping 1 to 3 cents. The retreat followed Friday’s sharp short-covering rally and reflected profit-taking as traders reassessed export pace and Plains moisture prospects.

USDA’s FGIS reported weekly wheat export shipments at 344,272 MT, down 38.9% from the prior week and nearly 12% below the same week last year. Although marketing-year exports remain 18.82% ahead of last year at 18.62 MMT, the weekly slowdown capped upside momentum and weighed on SRW contracts.

Weather remains a two-sided driver for wheat. The 7-day forecast calls for less than ½ inch of precipitation in western Kansas and the OK/TX panhandles, while eastern Plains regions are expected to receive heavier totals. In the Black Sea region, Ukrainian scientists warned that severe February frosts could damage up to 20% of winter grain crops in some fields, maintaining a latent supply risk.

Saudi Arabia’s purchase of 794,000 MT over the weekend reinforced global demand visibility, yet the tender news was not enough to offset weak US shipment data and technical pressure. The result was a broad-based correction across wheat markets.

Corn futures closed fractionally to 5 ½ cents lower in nearby contracts, while deferred new crop months posted modest gains. Export inspections reached 1.858 MMT for the week, the third-largest this year and 37.41% above the same week last year, with Mexico, South Korea, and Japan leading destinations. Strong physical flow continues to underpin the broader export narrative despite day-to-day volatility.

However, USDA’s Grain Crushing report showed January corn use for ethanol at 460.95 million bushels, down 1.49% year-on-year and 4.5% below December’s revised figure. The softer ethanol grind limited upside follow-through, even as crude oil remained firm after geopolitical tensions over the weekend.

South American supply dynamics remain in focus. Brazil’s first crop corn harvest stands at 36%, well behind last year’s 46% pace, while second-crop planting is at 66%, below 80% in 2025. Safras trimmed its Brazilian corn estimate by 1.17 MMT to 141.71 MMT, while StoneX raised its projection to 136 MMT, underscoring forecast divergence and sustaining weather premium uncertainty.

Soybeans closed 5 to 8 cents lower in the front months, with new crop contracts fractionally higher. Export inspections surged to 1.138 MMT, up 66.9% from the prior week and 62% above last year, with China the top buyer at 734,698 MT. Despite the strong weekly figure, marketing-year shipments remain 30.4% below last year’s pace, tempering bullish enthusiasm.

January soybean crush came in at 227.8 million bushels, exceeding estimates and marking a strong processing pace. However, soybean oil stocks rose 11.72% month-on-month to 2.43 billion lbs and were 33.9% above last year, offsetting some of the crush optimism and pressuring beans despite firming oil prices.

Brazil’s soybean harvest is 39% complete, behind last year’s 50%, with Safras cutting its crop estimate by 3 MMT to 178 MMT and StoneX trimming by 3.8 MMT. The production downgrades were partially balanced by expectations of still-record output, leaving soybeans caught between supply revisions and export headwinds.

May ’26 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.77 1/4, down 14 1/4 cents, pressured by weaker weekly shipments and profit-taking after Friday’s surge. Plains dryness and Black Sea frost risk offered support, but not enough to prevent broad-based selling.

May ’26 Corn closed at $4.45 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents, as softer ethanol use data offset strong export inspections and ongoing Brazilian planting delays. Deferred contracts held firmer on supply uncertainty.

May ’26 Soybeans closed at $11.64, down 6 3/4 cents, as rising soybean oil stocks and marketing-year export lags countered strong weekly inspection numbers and above-estimate crush data. South American production cuts limited downside but failed to spark fresh buying.