Chicago grains opened Tuesday in mixed fashion, with hard red wheat contracts firm while soft red slips, and corn and soybeans hovering near unchanged. Traders are weighing fresh Black Sea logistics disruption, fertilizer price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, and shifting South American crop forecasts as March trade unfolds.
Wheat is mixed to start the session, with Chicago SRW futures down 3 to 6 cents while Kansas City HRW is steady to a penny higher and Minneapolis firm by up to 2 cents. The divergence reflects continued moisture concerns in western HRW country even as eastern Plains and SRW regions are set to receive meaningful rainfall over the next week.
The next seven days are forecast to be wet across the eastern half of the Southern Plains and much of SRW country, but western Kansas and adjacent HRW areas are expected to receive limited precipitation. That split keeps yield risk elevated in hard red regions, supporting HRW spreads despite broader softness in soft wheat.
EU wheat exports have reached 15.77 MMT from July 1 through March 1, up 1.36 MMT year-on-year. The stronger EU pace reinforces global supply competition, capping upside in Chicago while underscoring the need for sustained export momentum from the US.
Black Sea developments remain a latent support factor. Novorossiysk port suspended oil loadings after a Ukrainian drone attack, highlighting ongoing geopolitical risk in the region. While the disruption centered on energy infrastructure, heightened security risk in the corridor adds volatility premium to grain flows.
Corn futures are trading within a penny of unchanged Tuesday after Monday’s slight losses. USDA reported a private export sale of 196,000 MT of corn to unknown destinations this morning, reinforcing near-term demand interest.
Export inspections remain strong, with 1.859 MMT of corn shipped in the latest week, well above last year’s pace. However, January corn use for ethanol came in at 460.95 million bushels, below estimates and down from both last year and December, limiting upside enthusiasm.
Brazil’s 2025/26 corn outlook is mixed. First crop harvest is 36% complete and second crop planting stands at 66%, both lagging last year’s pace. Safras estimates total national production at 141.71 MMT, slightly below its previous forecast, keeping some weather premium embedded in deferred contracts.
Soybeans are trading near unchanged Tuesday morning after Monday’s modest losses. The market continues to digest Middle East developments, as China called for a halt to military operations, adding diplomatic uncertainty to oilseed trade flows.
January soybean crush came in at 227.8 million bushels, above expectations and 7.2% higher year-on-year, underscoring strong processing demand. However, soybean oil stocks climbed to 2.43 billion lbs, up 33.9% from last year, tempering the bullish impact of firm crush margins.
Brazil’s soybean harvest stands at 39%, the slowest pace in five years, with AgRural and StoneX trimming 2025/26 production forecasts to 178 MMT and 177.8 MMT respectively. Even with downward revisions, output is still projected to reach record levels, leaving the global balance sheet heavy into the second quarter.
May ’26 CBOT Wheat closed Monday at $5.71 1/4, down 6 cents. Early Tuesday trade is mixed, with HRW supported by western Plains dryness and SRW pressured by wetter forecasts and steady EU exports.
May ’26 Corn closed at $4.46, up 1/4 cent. This morning’s tone is near flat, as strong export inspections and a fresh private sale are balanced against softer ethanol demand data.
May ’26 Soybeans closed at $11.63 3/4, down 1/4 cent. Steady crush demand supports the complex, but rising oil stocks and record Brazilian output projections are capping upside at the start of Tuesday’s session.