Chicago grains are weaker to start Thursday, led by fresh selling in wheat as expanding rainfall forecasts weigh on soft red contracts and delivery activity adds pressure in hard red markets. Corn and soybeans are also trading lower early, as traders reassess positioning ahead of ethanol data and continued Middle East uncertainty.
Wheat is showing losses across all three exchanges this morning, with Chicago leading the move lower. May ’26 CBOT wheat, which closed Tuesday at $5.74, down 3 1/4 cents, is currently down 9 1/4 cents, signaling follow-through selling after mixed trade earlier in the week.
The next seven days are expected to bring widespread rainfall to the eastern half of the Southern Plains and most of SRW country, while western HRW areas are forecast to receive limited precipitation. This moisture split favors soft red wheat yield prospects and pressures Chicago futures, while keeping hard red regions comparatively supported but unable to offset broader weakness.
Kansas winter wheat conditions were rated 58% good/excellent, down from 61% in early February, indicating some deterioration ahead of spring green-up. While that decline offers underlying support to HRW, it has not been enough to counter the bearish impact of wetter near-term forecasts and delivery pressure.
There were 91 deliveries issued against March KC wheat overnight, adding to short-term supply signals in the hard red complex. Combined with falling open interest earlier this week, the market tone suggests a mix of long liquidation and positioning adjustments rather than fresh speculative buying.
Globally, EU wheat exports have totaled 15.77 MMT since July 1, up 1.36 MMT year-on-year, reinforcing competitive supply from Europe. Australia’s wheat crop is estimated at 36 MMT, slightly below USDA’s February estimate of 37 MMT, underscoring ample global availability despite localized stress.
Corn futures are down 1 1/4 to 3 1/4 cents in the front months early Thursday, after closing Tuesday up 3/4 cent at $4.46 1/2. Preliminary open interest fell sharply, primarily in old crop positions, suggesting some long liquidation, while new crop interest increased.
USDA confirmed a private export sale of 196,000 MT of corn earlier this week, supporting near-term demand sentiment. However, traders are awaiting this morning’s EIA report, with ethanol production expected to be steady, limiting fresh bullish catalysts.
Soybeans are trading lower across most contracts this morning, after closing Tuesday up 6 1/2 cents at $11.70 1/2. Early weakness reflects profit-taking and continued uncertainty surrounding geopolitical developments in the Middle East.
Open interest in soybeans rose earlier in the week, mostly in new crop months, indicating fresh positioning rather than short covering. Another 244 deliveries were issued overnight, adding short-term supply pressure in the nearby contract.
The market continues to digest calls from China for a halt to military operations in the Middle East, while US and Chinese trade officials are set to meet mid-month to prepare for a Trump/Xi meeting later in March. Diplomatic developments could influence oilseed trade flows and broader risk appetite.
May ’26 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.74, down 3 1/4 cents, and is currently down 9 1/4 cents, pressured by wetter SRW forecasts, delivery flow in Kansas City, and competitive global exports.
May ’26 Corn closed at $4.46 1/2, up 3/4 cent, and is currently down 3 1/4 cents, as crude oil support is offset by open interest liquidation and cautious positioning ahead of ethanol data.
May ’26 Soybeans closed at $11.70 1/2, up 6 1/2 cents, and are currently down 3 cents, with early weakness tied to delivery pressure, geopolitical uncertainty, and consolidation after Tuesday’s late-session rally.