Chicago grains opened Thursday higher across the board, with wheat leading gains as traders react to fresh Black Sea disruption and tightening fertilizer supplies. Corn and soybeans are also firmer early, supported by export demand expectations and renewed geopolitical risk ahead of this morning’s USDA Export Sales report.
Wheat is up 2 to 7 cents this morning, recovering from Wednesday’s broad-based weakness. May ’26 CBOT Wheat, which closed at $5.68 1/4, down 5 3/4 cents, is currently up 5 cents in early trade, signaling short-term bargain buying ahead of export data.
Traders are expecting net old crop wheat sales between 200,000 and 500,000 MT for the week ending February 26, with minimal new crop activity. Planting intentions data from Statistics Canada, due later today, is projected to show total wheat acres at 26.4 million, down from 26.9 million last year, while spring wheat acreage is expected near 18.8 million acres. A smaller Canadian wheat area would offer underlying support to global supply expectations.
Geopolitical risk intensified after Ukrainian authorities reported a Russian drone strike on a Panama-flagged vessel carrying corn in the Black Sea as it departed Chornomorsk port. Although grain flows continue, the incident reinforces corridor vulnerability and adds a risk premium to regional export routes.
Ukraine’s February grain shipments to Black Sea ports increased 5.5% year-on-year to 2.3 MMT despite infrastructure attacks, highlighting resilient export logistics. Meanwhile, SovEcon projects Ukraine’s 2026 corn crop at 29.9 MMT, 6% lower year-on-year, reflecting reduced acreage as farmers shift toward oilseeds.
Corn futures are trading 1 to 2 cents higher early Thursday after closing Wednesday at $4.43 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents. A 125,000-ton corn sale to unknown buyers announced Wednesday brought total weekly corn sales to 321,000 tons so far, reinforcing baseline demand.
Export Sales expectations for corn range from 700,000 to 2.2 MMT, with an average of 1.45 MMT. Strong shipments and private forward sales, including 154,000 MT of 2026/27 corn to Japan last week, support forward demand visibility.
EIA reported ethanol production at 1.095 million barrels per day, down 18,000 bpd week-on-week, while ethanol stocks rose 2.7% to 26.337 million barrels. Softer production tempers upside potential, but higher exports at 217,000 bpd offset part of the bearish tone.
Soybeans are up 1 to 3 cents this morning after closing Wednesday at $11.69 1/2, down 1 cent. Traders are looking for weekly soybean export sales between 0.3 and 1 MMT, with meal sales projected between 200,000 and 550,000 MT.
Brazil’s soybean exports are expected to reach 16.1 MMT in March, up from 15.7 MMT a year earlier, though February shipments fell short of projections due to heavy rains. Strong March flows could weigh on global prices even as Argentine drought risk lingers.
Argentina’s 2025/26 corn production is estimated at 56.2 MMT, up 1% from the last update, but continued dryness in southern and eastern Pampas keeps yield risks elevated. In Brazil, 2025/26 corn production was revised slightly lower to 139.9 MMT amid persistent warm and dry conditions in southern regions.
Fertilizer markets are adding a new layer of macro risk. The Justice Department is probing major fertilizer producers over possible price fixing, while escalating Middle East conflict has disrupted urea and nitrogen exports from Qatar, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. Urea prices have surged by roughly $80 per ton since the conflict began, tightening global supply and raising cost concerns ahead of planting season.
China’s five-year agricultural plan aims to lift grain production capacity to 725 MMT by 2030 through yield gains and technology rather than acreage expansion. While supportive long term, China remains heavily dependent on soybean imports, maintaining sensitivity to global oilseed flows.
May ’26 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.68 1/4, down 5 3/4 cents, and is currently up 5 cents, supported by Black Sea risk, tighter fertilizer markets, and expectations of smaller Canadian wheat acreage.
May ’26 Corn closed at $4.43 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents, and is currently up 1 3/4 cents, buoyed by export demand expectations and geopolitical support despite softer ethanol production.
May ’26 Soybeans closed at $11.69 1/2, down 1 cent, and are currently up 1 1/2 cents, as export hopes and fertilizer-driven acreage uncertainty offset strong Brazilian shipment projections.