Chicago grains closed sharply higher on Thursday, led by double-digit gains in wheat and strong advances in corn, as export sales data surprised to the upside and geopolitical risks intensified. Soybeans also finished firmer, supported by bean oil strength and export demand, despite mixed South American supply signals.

Wheat rallied across all three exchanges, with Chicago SRW futures up 12 to 16 cents, Kansas City HRW gaining 13 to 20 cents, and Minneapolis spring wheat rising 6 1/2 to 10 1/2 cents on the session. A $4.23 rally in crude oil added spillover support, while Black Sea tensions reinforced a risk premium in the complex.

Weekly USDA Export Sales showed 203,100 MT of old crop wheat sold for the week ending February 26, down 16.41% from the previous week and 40.04% below the same week last year. Mexico was the top buyer at 74,500 MT, followed by Indonesia at 72,000 MT. Despite the relatively modest sales figure, the market focused on broader risk drivers and positioning ahead of global acreage updates.

Statistics Canada’s planting intentions report projected total wheat acres at 26.74 million for spring 2026, slightly above trade estimates. Spring wheat acreage was pegged at 18.78 million acres, slightly below 2025 levels. The acreage mix signals stable North American supply, limiting upside enthusiasm but not derailing Thursday’s rally.

Geopolitical risk escalated after reports that a Russian drone struck a Panama-flagged vessel carrying corn in the Black Sea as it departed Chornomorsk port. While exports continue, the incident underscores corridor vulnerability and keeps volatility elevated in wheat and corn markets.

Corn futures posted strong gains, with most contracts up 6 to 9 3/4 cents at the close. May ’26 Corn settled at $4.53 1/2, up 9 3/4 cents. The CmdtyView national average cash corn price rose 9 1/2 cents to $4.12 3/4, reflecting the firm futures tone and strong demand narrative.

USDA’s Export Sales report showed 2.02 MMT of old crop corn sold for the week of February 26, nearly triple the prior week and more than double the same week last year. South Korea led purchases with 530,300 MT, followed by Colombia and Mexico. New crop sales totaled 154,000 MT, all to Japan, reinforcing forward demand visibility.

Brazilian trade data showed February corn exports at 1.55 MMT, up 9.34% year-on-year but below January totals. Argentina’s early corn harvest is 7.2% complete, with production estimated at 57 MMT. Ongoing dryness in southeastern Pampas remains a yield risk despite slightly improved national output projections.

Soybeans closed 3 to 9 3/4 cents higher, led by nearby contracts, with May ’26 settling at $11.79 1/4, up 9 3/4 cents. The national average cash bean price rose 9 3/4 cents to $11.05 1/2. Strength was driven largely by soybean oil, which gained 67 to 223 points, while soymeal fell $0.50 to $2.40 on the day.

Weekly soybean export sales reached 383,492 MT, down 5.8% from the previous week but 31.11% above the same week last year. China purchased 153,100 MT, while additional tonnage was switched from unknown destinations to the Netherlands and Egypt. Soymeal sales totaled 255,760 MT, within expectations, and bean oil sales came in at 7,662 MT.

Brazil’s soybean crop is estimated at 183.1 MMT, slightly above prior projections, with February exports reaching 8.9 MMT despite heavy rains. March soybean exports are projected at 16.1 MMT, potentially weighing on global prices as harvest pace accelerates. In Argentina, only 30% of soybean acres are rated good/excellent, reflecting lingering drought stress.

Statistics Canada projected canola acreage at 21.84 million acres, below trade estimates but up 1% from last year, while soybean acreage was seen at 5.89 million acres, up modestly year-on-year. The oilseed acreage mix may influence North American crush and export flows later in the year.

Fertilizer markets remain a significant macro factor. The US Justice Department has launched an investigation into potential price-fixing among major fertilizer producers. Meanwhile, escalating conflict in the Middle East has disrupted nitrogen and urea exports from Qatar, Iran and Saudi Arabia. Urea prices have risen roughly $80 per ton since the conflict began, tightening global supply ahead of spring planting.

Ukraine increased grain shipments to Black Sea ports by 5.5% year-on-year in February to 2.3 MMT despite continued attacks, underscoring export resilience. However, Ukraine’s 2026 corn production is projected at 29.9 MMT, down 6% from a year earlier as acreage shifts toward oilseeds.

Kazakhstan’s 2025/26 wheat production is projected at 18 MMT, slightly below last year’s output, though exports may approach 10 MMT. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s 2026 rapeseed export forward prices are rising amid winter damage risks, with up to 10% of acreage potentially requiring reseeding.

May ’26 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.83 3/4, up 15 1/2 cents, driven by crude oil strength, Black Sea risk, and broad short covering despite modest export sales.

May ’26 Corn closed at $4.53 1/2, up 9 3/4 cents, supported by exceptional export sales data, crude oil gains, and resilient global demand.

May ’26 Soybeans closed at $11.79 1/4, up 9 3/4 cents, as soybean oil strength, solid export interest, and fertilizer-driven acreage uncertainty outweighed robust Brazilian supply projections.