Chicago grains are sharply higher to start Friday, extending Thursday’s rally as crude oil jumps another $5.32 and export momentum reinforces bullish sentiment. Wheat is posting double-digit gains again, corn is building on exceptional sales data, and soybeans are following through on strong bean oil performance and tightening fertilizer concerns.
Crude oil’s continued surge is providing cross-commodity support, particularly for corn and soybeans through biofuel channels. Escalating Middle East conflict has disrupted fertilizer production and shipping routes, pushing urea prices roughly $80 per ton higher and raising cost concerns ahead of spring planting. That dynamic is reinforcing acreage uncertainty and underpinning grain futures broadly.
Wheat is leading the advance with double-digit gains across the three exchanges. May ’26 CBOT Wheat, which closed Thursday at $5.83 3/4, up 15 1/2 cents, is currently up 18 cents in early Friday trade. The rally reflects sustained short covering, Black Sea risk premium, and firmer global wheat values.
Thursday’s USDA Export Sales report showed 203,100 MT of old crop wheat sold for the week ending February 26, down week-on-week and year-on-year. While the headline number was modest, traders focused instead on geopolitical risk and tightening global conditions. FranceAgriMer maintained French wheat at 84% good/excellent, and FAO projects global wheat production may decline nearly 3% in 2026, adding longer-term supply sensitivity.
Canadian planting intentions data showed total wheat acreage at 26.74 million acres for spring 2026, slightly above estimates, with spring wheat at 18.78 million acres. Stable acreage limits near-term supply tightening but does not offset current geopolitical support.
Corn futures are trading 2 to 5 cents higher this morning after closing Thursday at $4.53 1/2, up 9 3/4 cents. Thursday’s Export Sales report showed 2.02 MMT of old crop corn sold, nearly triple the prior week and more than double year-ago levels. South Korea led purchases at 530,300 MT, with strong buying also from Colombia and Mexico.
Open interest in corn rose sharply by 45,500 contracts Thursday, suggesting net new buying rather than short covering. Five deliveries were issued against March corn overnight, but strong export demand and crude oil strength continue to dominate trade.
Brazilian February corn exports totaled 1.55 MMT, up 9.34% year-on-year, though below January levels. Argentina’s early corn harvest is 7.2% complete, with the crop still estimated at 57 MMT. Persistent dryness in southeastern Pampas remains a watch point despite improved national projections.
Soybeans are up 7 to 11 cents in early Friday trade after closing Thursday at $11.79 1/4, up 9 3/4 cents. Bean oil remains a key driver, supported by higher energy prices and expectations of supportive biofuel policy ahead of a Trump/Xi meeting later this month.
Weekly soybean export sales totaled 383,492 MT, down 5.8% from the previous week but 31.11% above the same week last year. China purchased 153,100 MT, and meal sales were within expectations. Nine deliveries were issued against March soybeans overnight, with additional deliveries in soymeal and bean oil.
Brazil’s soybean production is estimated at 183.1 MMT according to Agroconsult, reflecting a record crop despite late-season weather challenges. February exports reached 7.113 MMT, more than triple January and 10.66% above year-ago levels. However, LSEG’s estimate places Brazil’s 2025/26 crop slightly lower at 178.2 MMT due to localized late-season stress.
Argentina’s soybean crop is rated 30% good/excellent, up 1 point week-on-week but still reflecting dryness concerns during the critical pod-fill stage. Paraguay remains on track for a record 11.5 MMT soybean harvest under favorable late-season weather.
May ’26 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.83 3/4, up 15 1/2 cents, and is currently up 18 cents, supported by crude oil strength, Black Sea risk, and tightening fertilizer markets.
May ’26 Corn closed at $4.53 1/2, up 9 3/4 cents, and is currently up 4 cents, driven by exceptional export sales and energy spillover.
May ’26 Soybeans closed at $11.79 1/4, up 9 3/4 cents, and are currently up 11 cents, as bean oil strength, solid export interest, and fertilizer-driven acreage uncertainty outweigh record Brazilian supply projections.