Chicago futures closed higher on Thursday as stronger weekly export sales and a $9.15 crude oil uptick added spillover support, while regional weather, Black Sea export flows and Brazil/Indonesia developments provided offsetting supply signals that kept gains in check.

Core market drivers:

U.S. weather was a clear near-term driver: the next seven days look drier for much of the Southern Plains while the eastern half and SRW area are wetter. Drier conditions in the south increase concern over soil moisture heading into sensitive growth windows, which is supportive for winter and spring wheat prices, while wetter SRW-area conditions temper stress there and limit broader upside.

Thursday’s USDA weekly export sales showed a strong wheat result of 455,439 MT for the week ending March 5, the largest in four weeks and more than double the prior week, led by a large Mexico purchase. That immediate demand read is supportive for U.S. wheat futures because it validates exportable supplies and tightens near-term availability amid competing Black Sea flows.

At the same time, Black Sea and European signals were mixed: Russia’s rail operator expects March wheat exports near 3.7m tons — almost double last year’s volume for the month — while FranceAgriMer trimmed non-EU soft wheat export forecasts and raised end-season stocks. The combination leaves a two-sided picture for wheat where stronger U.S. export demand supports prices, but larger Russian shipments and rising EU stocks cap upside.

Corn export sales of 1.53 MMT for the week were smaller than the prior week but remain sizable year-on-year, and Census data showed record January shipment volumes at 6.61 MMT. Those flows, together with the weekly sales, are supportive for corn by confirming demand for old-crop stocks even as new-crop business remains light.

Energy markets provided notable spillover: crude oil jumped $9.15 on Thursday, and the DOE reported U.S. ethanol stocks fell to 25.58M bbl. Higher crude and tighter ethanol stocks point to stronger implied gasoline and ethanol demand, which is supportive for corn by increasing near-term feedstock needs and squeezing available supply for other uses.

Soybeans received mixed demand signals: old-crop export sales of 456,740 MT were the largest in three weeks but remain well below year-earlier levels, while soybean meal sales were modest and soybean oil saw net cancellations. The uneven export picture supports beans modestly via ongoing demand but leaves the oilseed complex sensitive to follow-through sales data.

Global oilseed logistics and policy developments added complexity. Cargill’s reported pause of Brazil-to-China soybean shipments following new inspection procedures creates a disruptive risk to flows and may tighten immediate availability for soy buyers, which is supportive for soybean prices if the disruption endures. Conversely, Indonesia’s cooling palm oil export demand due to higher freight and insurance costs could relieve some vegetable-oil tightness later, creating offsetting pressure on soy oil and thus on crush margins.

Positioning and funds flows signaled divergent sentiment across exchanges: Euronext data showed non-commercial participants extended net long positions in milling wheat while commercials extended net shorts, a setup that can magnify moves in either direction. That positioning, combined with the pending weekly USDA export report, makes the near-term tape reactive to incoming data and headline flows across the complex.

Crop futures wrap:

Wheat — May ’26 CBOT wheat closed at $5.98 1/2, up 3 3/4 cents. The close reflected supportive U.S. weekly sales (455,439 MT) and drier Southern Plains near-term forecasts, while larger expected Russian March shipments and rising French non-EU stocks limited stronger gains.

Corn — May ’26 Corn closed at $4.62 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents. Corn gained on solid export shipments and record January Census shipments (6.61 MMT) alongside energy spillover as crude rose $9.15 and U.S. ethanol stocks fell to 25.58M bbl, signaling firmer ethanol demand and support for feedstock needs.

Soybeans — May ’26 Soybeans closed at $12.27 1/4, up 13 1/4 cents. Soybeans were buoyed by the week’s solid old-crop sales (456,740 MT) and strength in soybean meal and oil futures, while disruptions to Brazil-to-China shipments and mixed soybean oil demand left the complex sensitive to further export and logistical developments.