Late-week developments—Black Sea attacks, China fertilizer curbs and shifting global supply expectations—reset market direction across the grain complex.

The week closed with renewed downside pressure as Friday’s developments outweighed earlier supportive drivers. Wheat led the decline, while soybeans and corn also softened as traders reassessed demand signals, logistics risks and evolving global supply outlooks.

The most critical late-week driver was the escalation in the Black Sea, with drone strikes on vessels in Ukraine’s Odesa region. This reinforced persistent export corridor risks, supporting wheat earlier in the week but ultimately contributing to volatility rather than sustained upside as global supply competition remains strong.

Global wheat supply expectations shifted with updated projections. Russia’s wheat exports are seen at 45.7 MMT in the new season, above the current 44.4 MMT, while EU exports are also expected to rise to 32.2 MMT. At the same time, SovEcon raised Russia’s 2026 wheat crop forecast to 87.6 MMT. This combination capped wheat rallies by reinforcing ample Black Sea export availability despite geopolitical risk.

European production signals added a mixed tone. COCERAL projects EU+UK grain output at 298.8 MMT in 2026, below last year’s 310.5 MMT, with soft wheat and barley both declining year-on-year. This offered underlying support to wheat, but not enough to offset bearish pressure from larger Russian export potential.

China remained central to both input and demand dynamics. The restriction of fertilizer exports tightened global supply and increased cost pressure for producers worldwide, particularly impacting planting economics. This is broadly supportive longer term, but near-term it added uncertainty rather than immediate bullish price action.

Soybean demand signals from China were notably weak. Imports of U.S. soybeans fell sharply to 1.49 MMT in January–February, down 83.7% year-on-year. This reinforced the shift toward Brazilian supply and weighed directly on CBOT soybeans, limiting upside despite strong crush and meal support.

Brazil remained a key swing factor. While record soybean production continues to anchor global supply, export flows faced friction due to inspection disputes with China. The government signaled negotiations on inspection requirements, highlighting logistical and trade uncertainty that added short-term support but not enough to reverse bearish demand trends.

Fertilizer and logistics risks expanded beyond China. Brazil flagged potential fertilizer supply disruptions due to Middle East tensions, with urea prices rising and some sellers halting offers. This raised concerns for corn and soybean planting costs, supporting deferred price structures but not immediate futures strength.

Global trade flows remained active. Kazakhstan resumed grain exports to Iran, Azerbaijan sharply increased wheat imports, and Jordan secured barley via tender. These flows confirmed steady demand in feed grains and wheat, but did not materially tighten global balances given strong overall supply expectations.

Positioning amplified volatility into the close. Corn remained heavily long, wheat saw partial short covering earlier in the week, and soybeans faced continued length reduction. By Friday, profit-taking and lack of fresh bullish catalysts drove the market lower across all three crops.

Wheat: May ’26 CBOT wheat closed at $5.95 1/4, down 12 3/4 cents on Friday after testing $6.08 earlier in the week. Price action was driven by Black Sea risks, U.S. weather and export demand early, but capped by rising Russian export projections and improved supply outlooks.

Corn: May ’26 corn closed at $4.65 1/2, down 4 1/4 cents on Friday, holding a firmer weekly tone. Support came from export flow, biofuel policy and South American weather concerns, while late-week pressure reflected profit-taking and input cost uncertainty linked to fertilizer markets.

Soybeans: May ’26 soybeans closed at $11.61 1/4, down 7 1/4 cents on Friday. The market was shaped by weak U.S. export demand to China, Brazilian supply dominance, crush strength and trade friction, with the late-week tone turning defensive as demand concerns outweighed earlier support.