A sharp drop in crude oil after Trump delayed proposed strikes on Iranian energy targets is pressuring the grain complex at the open, while wheat, corn and soybeans also absorb fresh Black Sea, fertilizer and China demand headlines.
The market starts Monday with wheat and corn slightly weaker and soybeans steady to firmer at the margin. The tone is defensive, but the bigger story is not just price action: traders are weighing a softer energy market against tighter fertilizer supply, uneven South American weather and a fresh wave of demand and logistics headlines.
Oil is down $6.51 this morning after the weekend geopolitical headline cooled some of the war premium. That matters for grains because it softens biofuel support and keeps a lid on broader risk appetite, with the most immediate pressure likely landing on corn, soybeans and the soybean oil complex.
Black Sea risk remains in focus after drone strikes on vessels in Ukraine’s Odesa region over the weekend. That keeps wheat supported on an underlying basis, but the latest supply headlines still point to strong Russian and European export potential, which limits how far any rally can run.
China is adding a second layer of pressure through fertilizer policy. Fresh reports that Beijing is restricting fertilizer exports to protect its domestic market tighten global supply further, which raises spring input costs for growers and keeps planting economics in focus, especially for corn and soybeans.
The same China thread is also hitting demand sentiment. U.S. soybean imports by China were sharply weaker in January and February, while Brazil continues to dominate the flow, and Beijing has now eased rules on weeds in Brazilian soybean cargoes. That combination remains bearish for U.S. soybeans and supportive for Brazil’s export pipeline.
Soymeal and corn are also caught up in the wider China livestock story. Chinese pig prices are at a 15-year low and producer margins are under heavy pressure, which raises the risk of slower feed demand if herd cuts accelerate. That is not an immediate collapse signal, but it is a negative backdrop for meal and feed grains.
South America stays central this morning. Brazil’s soybean harvest is still behind last year, with weather issues lingering in parts of central Brazil, while Argentina’s grain exports are moving at a strong pace as harvest pressure meets active global demand. Heavy rain in the Pampas is helping late crops, but it can also disrupt harvest progress and keep freight costs elevated.
In the U.S., the weather setup is still broadly supportive for winter wheat stress. The Plains remain dry, while the Midwest could see more active weather and better soil moisture into spring planting. That leaves wheat with a mixed picture: near-term support from dryness, but pressure from stronger export availability and a softer energy tape.
Wheat: May ’26 CBOT wheat is down 6 cents early, after closing Friday at $5.95 1/4, down 12 3/4 cents. The market is balancing Black Sea shipping risk and dry U.S. Plains weather against stronger Russian and European export supply expectations.
Corn: May ’26 corn is down 2 cents early, after closing Friday at $4.65 1/2, down 4 1/4 cents. Corn is getting support from export pace and South American weather, but weaker crude, fertilizer cost pressure and a softer risk tone are keeping the open heavy.
Soybeans: May ’26 soybeans were unchanged early, after closing Friday at $11.61 1/4, down 7 1/4 cents. Beans are caught between weaker U.S. demand signals from China, stronger Brazilian export flow, and the supportive but unstable mix of crush, meal and vegetable oil headlines.