The market starts Monday with a mixed tone: U.S. biofuel policy is providing strong support to corn and soybeans, but wetter forecasts for the Plains and expectations ahead of USDA reports are limiting upside. Wheat remains the best-supported crop due to export strength and dry areas, although the weekend weather map added some pressure to prices.
The grain complex enters the new week with heightened sensitivity to policy, weather and key data. The main driver at the start of trade is the finalization of U.S. biofuel mandates, which provide strong support for domestic demand for corn and soybean oil, but at the same time the market remains cautious ahead of the acreage and stocks reports.
The decision for record RVO levels for 2026 and 2027 is clearly positive for the agricultural sector. Limiting the value of foreign feedstocks in the future also shifts benefits toward U.S. producers. This creates a direct incentive for domestic consumption of corn and soybeans, but in the short term the effect is already partly priced in and does not trigger an aggressive rally.
At the same time, political signals supporting farmers are adding a constructive background. Promises of improved access to financing and pressure to reduce equipment costs show that the agricultural sector remains a priority. However, this does not change the fact that margins are under pressure and the market continues to depend on core fundamentals.
Weather once again remains the key risk. Weekend precipitation across the Northern and Central Plains is slowing fieldwork, while the Southern Plains remain partially dry, especially in southwestern areas. This creates a mixed effect – short-term pressure on prices, but continued risk for wheat if dryness persists.
In the Midwest, increasing moisture is positive for upcoming crops but also delays early planting. In the Delta, conditions remain drier, maintaining concern around the start of the season. This means weather will remain the primary driver in the coming days.
South America remains an important but balancing factor. In Brazil, drier conditions are helping soybean harvest but creating risk for the safrinha corn crop. In Argentina, moisture is stabilizing some late crops, while Europe and the Black Sea region remain in relatively good condition, limiting global supply risk in the short term.
Wheat starts the week slightly lower, but fundamentals remain firm. May ’26 CBOT wheat is at $6.05, down 6 1/4 cents in early trade. Strong export commitments, active international demand and reduced speculative short positioning are supporting the market, while drought in the Southern Plains remains a key price driver.
Corn is also slightly lower but maintains a constructive outlook. May ’26 CBOT corn is at $4.62, down 1 3/4 cents. Support comes from strong export data and biofuel policy, but the market remains cautious ahead of the acreage and stocks report, which could reshape the balance.
Soybeans are the only crop starting the day higher. May ’26 CBOT soybeans are at $11.59 1/4, up 3 cents. Support comes from the biofuel theme and stronger soybean oil, but weaker export pace and large Brazilian supply are limiting upside potential.
Fertilizers and input costs remain an additional risk for the spring season. Rising ammonia prices and supply chain uncertainty continue to pressure production decisions, which is structurally supportive for grain markets in the medium term.
The focus for the day remains on how markets respond to biofuel policy and evolving U.S. weather. On Tuesday, USDA acreage and stocks reports will be the key event that could set the next direction for the entire grain complex.