U.S. biofuel policy delivered the biggest bullish headline of the day, but gains were capped by Monday selling, improving Plains moisture and caution ahead of Tuesday’s USDA acreage and stocks reports. Wheat held the best tone on export demand and weather risk, while corn and soybeans were pulled in opposite directions by policy support and pre-report repositioning.

Monday’s trade was dominated by the market’s reaction to Washington’s long-awaited biofuel decision, which reinforced domestic demand for corn and soybean oil and gave the agricultural complex a clear policy tailwind. At the same time, traders were reluctant to extend the rally aggressively ahead of Tuesday’s USDA reports, leaving the close mixed across the grain complex.

The EPA’s record blending mandate for 2026 and 2027 was the day’s most important headline. The higher quota strengthens demand for corn, soybeans and other feedstocks, while also giving the domestic biofuel industry more certainty after months of delays. The ruling was broadly supportive for crop prices, but the immediate upside was tempered as the market had already spent much of the session digesting the news.

The policy backdrop was further strengthened by fresh support from the White House for farmers, including comments on lower equipment costs and additional loan guarantees. That added to the sense that agriculture remains a political priority, but it did not fully offset the market’s caution ahead of the USDA acreage and stocks numbers, which are likely to reset expectations across the complex.

Weather remained a major second-layer driver, especially for wheat. Weekend moisture shifted a little farther west across the Plains, with more areas getting relief, though the southwest remained vulnerable to drought. In the Northern and Central Plains, frequent systems brought rain and snow that will slow early fieldwork, while the Southern Plains stayed mixed enough to keep wheat traders focused on crop condition risk.

Wheat also benefited from export flow. Monday morning inspections showed a solid shipment pace, with Japan, Nigeria and Mexico among the top destinations. That kept the market supported even as Kansas City HRW eased back from recent strength, and it reinforced the idea that wheat remains the tightest-looking crop heading into the March Intentions report.

Corn was pulled lower by pre-report position squaring despite strong demand signals and the new biofuel mandate. Export shipments were above last week and above year-ago levels, while a private sale to unknown destinations added another supportive note. Still, the market chose to trim risk ahead of the USDA acreage and stocks figures, especially with expectations calling for a sizable year-over-year drop in planted area but a much larger March 1 stocks number.

Soybeans were also mixed, with the policy backdrop offset by weaker export inspections. The record RVO decision is a clear medium-term positive for soybean oil use and domestic crush demand, but Monday’s export shipment pace was well below both last week and last year. That kept the bean market more hesitant than the policy headline alone would suggest, even as soybean oil futures held firmer.

Outside the U.S., the global supply picture remained broadly manageable but not fully benign. Brazil’s soybean harvest is nearing completion, but its second-crop corn still needs more consistent rainfall, which the latest forecasts do not fully deliver. Argentina’s weather is more favorable for late crops, Russia is moving quickly into spring sowing, and winter crop conditions there remain mostly good, all of which keeps the international balance sheet from turning sharply supportive on supply alone.

Fertilizer markets remain another important bullish undertone. Tampa ammonia jumped sharply last week, and Brazil is warning farmers not to rush fertilizer purchases after the recent surge in prices. That matters most for spring planting decisions in corn and wheat, where higher input costs can quickly alter producer behavior and support grain prices over time.

Wheat for May ’26 CBOT closed at $6.07, up 2 cents. Chicago SRW finished mostly fractionally to higher, while Kansas City HRW was the weakest after recent strength and Minneapolis spring wheat also gained. The market was supported by solid export inspections, improved Plains moisture in only part of the region, and lingering dryness concerns in the Southern Plains.

Corn for May ’26 CBOT closed at $4.55 3/4, down 6 1/4 cents. Despite a private export sale and strong shipment totals, the market sold off into the USDA acreage and stocks reports on Tuesday. The record biofuel mandate is supportive for demand, but Monday’s trade showed traders were unwilling to chase prices ahead of the data.

Soybeans for May ’26 CBOT closed at $11.59 3/4, up 1/2 cent. Beans were mixed on the day, with soy oil firmer and meal volatile as the market balanced the bullish biofuel quota against weaker export inspections. The new RVO is constructive for crush demand over time, but the near-term tone remains dependent on Tuesday’s USDA report and the pace of U.S. export demand.