Fresh sales support wheat and corn, but record South American output, weaker soybean demand, and shifting weather keep the grain complex without a clean Friday trend.
The grain complex starts Friday on a mixed footing, with wheat firmer overall while corn and soybeans soften after Thursday’s session. Traders are weighing broad export demand, heavier South American supply, reduced Australian wheat area, and weather that still leaves pockets of risk across the US Plains, the Corn Belt, and the Black Sea.
US export sales were supportive across the board, but soybeans were the clear weak spot. Thursday morning’s report showed 100,318 MT of old-crop wheat sold, 1.4 MMT of old-crop corn business, and just 247,886 MT of 2025/26 soybeans, which was a marketing-year low. That mix keeps wheat and corn underpinned by demand, while soybean sales, meal sales below estimates, and zero new-crop bean sales point to softer near-term support.
Australia’s wheat outlook is turning lighter, which is supportive for wheat and canola. A Western Australia survey showed wheat area falling to 3.68 million hectares from 4.45 million last year, with farmers shifting some land into barley, canola, and lupins as fertilizer costs rise and dry El Niño risks build. Australia also secured 250,000 tons of urea from Indonesia to cover part of its winter crop needs, underscoring how fertilizer stress is still shaping acreage decisions.
South American supply remains the biggest bearish force for corn and soybeans. Buenos Aires Grains Exchange raised Argentina’s 2025/26 corn crop estimate to a record 61 MMT, while Argentina’s soybean harvest is only 6.2% complete and recent rains are slowing field access. In Brazil, Abiove lifted its soybean export forecast to a record 113.6 MMT, even as revenue falls on weak global prices, while production was left unchanged at 177.85 MMT and crush was raised to a record 62.2 MMT.
Weather still matters, but the US outlook is more about mixed crop support than a clean bullish or bearish break. The forecast calls for a cool summer across the Midwest, Northeast, and eastern Canada, with an active storm track through the Corn Belt, while drought risk stays focused on the Mississippi Delta and Pacific Northwest. In the Plains, cold fronts, frost risk, and uneven rain remain concerns for winter wheat, while the Delta still needs meaningful moisture. That setup is supportive for spring crops overall, but it is not yet a full-blown weather scare.
The Black Sea region is also mixed, with wetter pockets helping and dry pockets keeping risk alive. Cooler temperatures dominated last week, soil moisture remains high across Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and central/south Russia, and the next 15-day outlook turns wetter for southern Ukraine, the North Caucasus, and Turkey. That is a modestly supportive setup for winter wheat and rapeseed, but it does not point to an immediate supply shock.
Vegetable oil markets remain another important cross-commodity driver for soybeans. Indonesia’s palm oil output is projected to rise to 48 MMT in 2026/27, with exports seen up 4% to 25 MMT and domestic biodiesel use set to climb under the B50 program. That adds supply to the global veg-oil balance at a time when soy oil already faces pressure from large Brazilian production and export flows.
Energy and logistics are still filtering into corn pricing. The EPA said the US generated more ethanol blending credits in March, which supports the broader biofuel demand story, but Mississippi River grain shipments fell in the latest week and barge rates edged higher. That combination is constructive for long-term corn demand, but it also hints at ongoing basis and freight friction.
Global wheat supply is not tight enough to spark a major rally on its own, but the balance is no longer cleanly bearish. France’s soft wheat crop stayed rated 84% good to excellent, while Canada’s rapeseed outlook points to slightly higher acreage and another season of strong crush-driven demand. Against that backdrop, wheat needs either stronger export follow-through or a sharper weather issue to extend gains.
Wheat
May ’26 CBOT SRW wheat closed Thursday at $5.98 1/2/bu, up 4 3/4 cents, and is down 2 cents early Friday. The market is being supported by solid export sales, weaker expected wheat area in Western Australia, and ongoing weather concerns in the US Plains and Black Sea region.
Corn
May ’26 CBOT corn closed Thursday at $4.48 1/2/bu, down 2 3/4 cents, and is up 1 1/4 cents at the Friday open. Export sales were strong at 1.4 MMT, but a record Argentina crop estimate of 61 MMT and heavier South American supply continue to cap upside.
Soybeans
May ’26 CBOT soybeans closed Thursday at $11.63 3/4/bu, down 3 1/4 cents, and are down 5 1/2 cents early Friday. Weak weekly export sales, soft meal demand, and Brazil’s record export outlook are weighing on the market, even as crush and veg-oil dynamics provide some offset.