The Iran war's grip on energy, fertilizer, and shipping costs collided with record-breaking South American supply to create the week's defining tension — a bullish macro shock meeting a bearish global crop reality.

Grains opened the week on a geopolitical front foot and closed it retreating after Iran agreed Friday to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The five-session arc — rallying Monday and Tuesday on Iran-driven fertilizer and energy risk premiums, consolidating mid-week on supply data, then surrendering gains Friday on the ceasefire development — captured the week's central paradox: historically large South American harvests pressing prices lower while a Middle East conflict kept input costs and macro uncertainty elevated throughout.

Iran War Dominated Macro Sentiment All Week — Then Reversed on Friday

The breakdown of US-Iran negotiations over the weekend entering Monday set the tone for the early rally across all three crops, with crude oil initially surging before giving back gains after President Trump signalled Iran was open to a deal. That ambiguity kept a bid under markets through Tuesday's session. The week's single most decisive moment came Friday morning when Iran formally agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz, sending crude oil down $9.12 on the session. Soy oil futures led losses on Friday as the biofuel premium tied to elevated energy costs deflated sharply, while soymeal's relative resilience confirmed that crush demand fundamentals — rather than energy linkage — had been the stronger support for that product all week.

Fertilizer Crisis Escalated Throughout the Week With Global Repercussions

The Strait of Hormuz closure through most of the week kept fertilizer supply chains under severe stress. India's closely watched urea tender drew offers near $1,000 per ton — roughly double pre-conflict levels of approximately $490 per ton — as nearly 45% of global urea supply normally transits the Persian Gulf. Australia moved to secure 250,000 tons of urea from Indonesia under a government-facilitated deal, covering approximately 20% of its remaining winter crop requirements, with urea prices reported to have doubled domestically since the war began. France's farm office FranceAgriMer warned corn-planted area could shrink 10% as farmers shift to less fertilizer-intensive crops or leave land fallow, directly pressuring new-crop European corn supply. The UN by week's end indicated it had a fertilizer corridor mechanism technically ready but awaiting a political agreement — underscoring how unresolved the structural supply threat remains even after Friday's Strait opening.

US Winter Wheat Conditions Deteriorated; HRW Dryness Drove the Week's Biggest Intraweek Wheat Move

KC HRW futures led the wheat complex higher through mid-week, driven by the USDA Crop Progress report showing winter wheat condition ratings falling 1 point to 34% good/excellent with the Brugler500 index down 3 points to 295. Kansas ratings dropped 20 points on the Brugler500, Nebraska fell 18 points, and Texas lost 7 points. NOAA's 7-day QPF confirmed western Kansas through the Texas Panhandle would remain dry for the coming week, with relief confined to SRW territory receiving 1 to 3 inches. A late-week cold front introduced frost risk for the most advanced HRW stands over the weekend, adding a new layer of quality concern going into the close. Spring wheat planting at 6% lagged the 7% average pace, keeping MPLS supported throughout the week, with May spring wheat finishing up 41 3/4 cents on the week.

CONAB Confirmed Record Brazilian Harvests; Supply Pressure Capped Soybean Upside

CONAB's April update, released Tuesday, set Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop at 179.15 MMT — a 1.3 MMT increase from March — with yields revised to a record 54.96 bushels per acre. The corn crop was simultaneously raised to 139.57 MMT, with the safrinha second crop accounting for 109.12 MMT. Brazil's harvest was 87% complete as of April 9 per AgRural. Abiove projected a record 113.6 MMT of Brazilian soybean exports in 2026, a 5.4 MMT increase from 2025, while cutting its average price forecast to $370 per ton from $440 per ton — a direct acknowledgement that volume records are being achieved at the cost of price. Paraguay also confirmed a record soybean output of approximately 12 MMT. The scale of Southern Hemisphere supply weighed on soybean prices throughout the week, with May soybeans managing only a marginal net gain.

Argentina Corn Raised to Record 61 MMT; Port Disruptions Added Mid-Week Complexity

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange lifted its Argentina corn harvest forecast to a record 61 MMT during the week, up 4 MMT from its prior estimate, moving closer to the Rosario Exchange figure of 67 MMT and well above the USDA's 52 MMT. Record corn export registrations of 12.3 MMT for March and April were reported, with the Rosario Exchange projecting 43 MMT of full-season corn exports. Mid-week, independent truckers paralyzed grain operations at the ports of Bahia Blanca and Necochea in protest over transport fees, with diesel prices up nearly 30% this year. The disruption was logistically significant for soy complex products given Argentina's dominance as the world's largest exporter of soymeal and soy oil, though Rosario — which handles more than 80% of the country's grain exports — remained operational throughout.

NOPA Crush Missed Estimates; China Soybean Imports Lagged on Brazilian Inspection Delays

NOPA released March crush data mid-week at 226.161 million bushels — the second-highest monthly total on record and up 16.3% year-on-year, but below the trade estimate of 229.978 million bushels. Soy oil stocks came in at 2.039 billion pounds, below all analyst estimates, a result that provided temporary support to soy oil early in the week before the Hormuz opening crushed the biofuel premium on Friday. China's March soybean imports of 4.02 MMT came in well below analyst expectations of approximately 6.4 MMT, weighed by delayed shipments from Brazil due to tightened phytosanitary inspections over pesticide contamination findings. The miss was cushioned by a 14.9% year-on-year gain from a low 2025 base, and analysts projected April-June monthly arrivals to average above 10 MMT as US and Brazilian supply normalizes.

US Export Sales Painted a Mixed Picture Across Crops

Weekly USDA export sales for the week ending April 9 showed corn at a 6-week high of 1.4 MMT in old-crop business, though still 10.3% below year-ago pace, with Japan and South Korea as lead destinations. Old-crop soybean sales reached a marketing-year low of 247,886 MT, with Egypt as the top buyer and new-crop sales at zero — a bearish data point reinforcing the supply overhang narrative. Old-crop wheat sales of 100,318 MT were down 38.68% week-on-week, though up 31.14% year-on-year, with Nigeria and Vietnam as the main buyers. A Taiwan mill tender for 105,950 MT of US wheat and Algeria's estimated 400,000 MT durum purchase on Wednesday provided pockets of demand support for the wheat complex. Corn export commitments year-to-date stand at 72.79 MMT, up 29% year-on-year, representing 87% of the USDA projection.

Funds Repositioned Sharply; Managed Money Cut Corn and Soybean Longs Aggressively

Friday's Commitments of Traders release showed managed money slashing 59,149 contracts from their net long corn position in the week ending April 14, driven primarily by new short interest, reducing the net long to 159,483 contracts. Soybean managers cut 14,479 contracts from their net long to 175,151 contracts as longs exited, while soybean meal specs moved the opposite direction, raising their net long 42,203 contracts to 135,743 — reflecting the persistent structural crush demand bid. Soy oil money managers trimmed their record net long by 2,362 contracts to 148,320 contracts, with the Friday Hormuz development suggesting further liquidation risk in energy-linked grain products into the following week. In wheat, CBT specs added 1,633 contracts to their net short at 7,266 contracts, while KC HRW specs extended their net long by 1,316 contracts to 16,924 — consistent with the divergent performance between the two wheat classes on the week.

Wheat

May '26 CBOT SRW wheat opened the week at $5.82 1/4 on Monday, up 11 1/4 cents, built to a weekly high close of $5.98 1/2 on Thursday, and finished Friday at $5.91 1/4, down 7 1/4 cents on the day. The weekly net gain for May was 20 1/4 cents — the complex's strongest performer on a percentage basis. KC HRW surged 46 cents on the week, driven by the deteriorating US winter wheat condition ratings, persistent Central and Southern Plains dryness, and Friday's frost risk for advanced stands. MPLS spring wheat added 41 3/4 cents on the week. The Hormuz opening pressured winter contracts on Friday while spring wheat held modest gains, reflecting the supply-specific nature of the HRS support.

Corn

May '26 CBOT corn closed Monday at $4.40 1/4, essentially flat on the day, before gradually strengthening through the mid-week sessions to close Thursday at $4.48 1/2. Friday's close of $4.48 3/4 — up just 1/4 cent on the session — left the week's net move marginally positive despite the volatile backdrop. The week's key corn drivers were Argentina's record harvest revision to 61 MMT, a 6-week high in US old-crop export sales at 1.4 MMT, and CONAB's Brazilian corn upgrade to 139.57 MMT. The crude oil collapse on Friday did not dent corn meaningfully given ethanol stocks came in above survey expectations at 26.699 million barrels with production running at 1.12 million b/d, above estimates, limiting any biofuel-driven upside that had been priced in.

Soybeans

May '26 CBOT soybeans opened the week under pressure at $11.62 1/4 on Monday, down 13 1/2 cents, recovered modestly to $11.63 3/4 by Thursday, and finished Friday at $11.67 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents on the day but leaving May approximately 5 cents lower on the week. The week's soybean narrative was defined by the collision of record South American supply — CONAB's 179.15 MMT Brazilian crop, Abiove's 113.6 MMT export forecast, and a marketing-year low US export sale of 247,886 MT — against the structural crush demand story evidenced by the NOPA crush near record pace and meal specs extending their net long aggressively. The Friday Hormuz opening crushed soy oil's energy premium, with the front-month soy oil contract shedding over 100 points on the day, while soymeal's relative resilience on the close confirmed that protein demand fundamentals remain intact.