Wheat finds support from persistent U.S. drought while soybeans remain under pressure from Brazil’s export dominance and cautious demand ahead of key export data.
The grain complex opens Thursday in a mixed tone, with wheat attempting to recover on U.S. weather stress, corn holding steady amid export and ethanol signals, and soybeans slipping as global supply competition continues to weigh on sentiment ahead of USDA export sales data later today.
Weather remains a primary driver, with persistent dryness across western Kansas and the Texas Panhandle continuing to underpin wheat markets. NOAA forecasts show little to no precipitation in these key HRW regions, sustaining drought stress and reinforcing weather-related risk premiums. However, improved moisture prospects further east temper the bullish tone, creating a divided weather outlook across the Plains.
Global supply dynamics continue to cap upside potential, particularly in wheat. Russia’s crop outlook remains strong, with SovEcon raising production estimates to 89.7 MMT, while exports are running significantly above last year’s pace. At the same time, EU wheat exports are exceeding prior-year levels, reinforcing competitive pressure on U.S. origin and limiting price rallies.
Demand signals remain mixed across the complex. Taiwan’s purchase of 105,950 MT of U.S. wheat and Saudi Arabia’s tender for 710,000 MT highlight ongoing global demand, yet expectations for weak U.S. export sales data — particularly for old crop wheat — suggest that demand is not strong enough to drive the market independently.
Corn markets are being shaped by a combination of steady export demand and weaker ethanol fundamentals. Recent private sales, including South Korea’s 134,000 MT purchase and additional U.S. flash sales, provide underlying support. However, ethanol production has declined notably, while rising stocks point to softer near-term demand from the biofuel sector.
Soybeans remain under pressure from strong South American competition, with Brazil’s April exports estimated at 16.4 MMT, maintaining a dominant position in global trade. This continued flow of supply is limiting U.S. export opportunities and weighing on prices, particularly as Chinese demand remains cautious.
Macro and input cost pressures are also influencing sentiment. Elevated fertilizer prices — driven by disruptions in the Middle East — are raising concerns for global planting economics and future crop decisions. At the same time, extreme heat warnings from global agencies highlight longer-term risks to agricultural productivity, adding a structural layer of uncertainty to the market.
Logistics disruptions in Argentina remain a localized but important factor. The ongoing blockade at the Quequen port continues to delay shipments, though the impact is partially offset by normal operations in Rosario. While not yet systemic, prolonged disruptions could begin to support U.S. and Brazilian export competitiveness.
Weather risks extend beyond the U.S., with cold conditions in North America and Ukraine threatening planting progress, while dryness in Brazil raises concerns for second-crop corn development. These conflicting global weather patterns are adding volatility and limiting clear directional conviction across markets.
Wheat
May ’26 CBOT wheat is trading higher by 1 to 8 cents early Thursday after closing Wednesday at $5.99 1/4, down 5 3/4 cents. The market is supported by persistent HRW drought conditions in the U.S. Plains, though gains remain capped by strong Russian production estimates and above-average EU exports. Traders are watching today’s export sales report for additional direction, with expectations remaining modest.
Corn
May ’26 CBOT corn is trading fractionally mixed, slightly lower after closing Wednesday at $4.54 1/4, up 1/2 cent. The market is supported by steady export demand, including recent private purchases, but weaker ethanol production and rising inventories are limiting upside. Today’s export sales data, expected in the 1–1.8 MMT range, will be key for short-term direction.
Soybeans
May ’26 CBOT soybeans are trading down 1 to 2 cents after closing Wednesday at $11.64 1/2, down 10 cents. Continued pressure from strong Brazilian exports and cautious global demand is weighing on the complex. Export sales expectations remain modest, and the market lacks a near-term bullish catalyst to offset the heavy global supply picture.