The grain complex opens Thursday under pressure after a multi-day rally, as heavy wheat deliveries, improving export flows, and global supply signals begin to challenge the dominance of the drought-driven bullish narrative.
Grains open Thursday in a weaker tone following the strongest rally sequence of the month. Wheat is sharply lower across all exchanges after hitting contract highs Wednesday, corn is slipping modestly under month-end pressure and wheat spillover weakness, while soybeans are mixed to slightly lower as demand signals remain inconsistent. The session is defined by a shift from purely weather-driven momentum toward a more balanced market digesting export data, delivery flows, and global supply projections.
The most immediate driver of the reversal is heavy delivery activity in wheat futures, with 400 deliveries against May CBOT wheat and 578 deliveries in KC contracts, largely from the Bunge house account. This signals physical supply availability at current price levels and acts as a near-term bearish factor, especially after an extended rally. The delivery pressure is directly weighing on Chicago SRW and KC HRW futures, pulling prices 15 to 18 cents lower intraday and marking a clear pause in the weather-led momentum.
Export Sales data for wheat provided a mixed but slightly supportive signal. Old crop wheat sales of 226,096 MT for the week of April 23 came in at the higher end of expectations and marked a five-week high, while new crop sales of 156,715 MT were also near the top of estimates. This confirms demand is present, but not strong enough to offset the combination of delivery pressure and expanding global supply signals, leaving wheat vulnerable after its recent surge.
Weather remains a critical but increasingly complex driver. Much of the US Plains continues to face dry conditions, particularly across the Central and Northern Plains where meaningful precipitation is still lacking. However, limited rainfall returning to parts of SRW regions and Texas introduces a slightly more balanced weather outlook compared to earlier in the week. The persistence of dryness continues to support wheat structurally, but the lack of further deterioration today reduces the urgency of bullish positioning.
Global supply signals are increasingly capping the upside. Russia’s wheat export outlook has been revised higher to 47.4 MMT for 2025/26, reinforcing its dominant role in global trade. At the same time, the European Commission raised EU wheat production estimates to 127.3 MMT and increased ending stocks projections, confirming that non-US supply remains abundant and competitive. This combination directly pressures US wheat export competitiveness and limits the sustainability of price rallies.
Corn markets are showing relative resilience but remain under pressure from external factors. Export Sales of 1.598 MMT came in at the upper end of expectations and marked the strongest weekly demand since late February, confirming that structural export demand remains intact. However, the absence of new crop sales this week — the first such occurrence in 13 weeks — introduces a cautionary signal for forward demand coverage.
Weather in the Corn Belt is moderately supportive but not bullish. Favorable planting conditions across much of the Midwest over the next five days support rapid crop establishment, while rain expected later in the 7-day window could stabilize soil moisture. This creates a neutral-to-slightly bearish backdrop, as strong planting progress reduces early-season risk premium without introducing immediate production threats.
Soybeans are trading mixed as internal divergence dominates the complex. Soybean meal is sharply lower, down $4 to $5, while soy oil is up 45 to 93 points, reflecting the continued split between protein demand and energy-linked vegetable oil demand. Export Sales of 258,066 MT for old crop soybeans were at the lower end of expectations and significantly below last year, reinforcing the underlying demand weakness that continues to weigh on the complex.
Additional macro and structural signals remain in the background. Indonesia’s move to increase palm oil export taxes and tightening import regulations on wheat and feed grains signal policy-driven shifts in global trade flows. Meanwhile, North Korea’s drought response highlights broader global weather risks, reinforcing that climate remains a persistent but uneven factor across regions.
Wheat
May ’26 CBOT wheat is trading at $6.24, down 18 1/4 cents on Thursday after closing Wednesday at contract highs, as heavy delivery pressure, improved export supply signals from Russia and the EU, and a pause in weather deterioration drive a sharp correction. The drought narrative remains supportive, but near-term momentum has shifted toward consolidation.
Corn
May ’26 CBOT corn is at $4.64 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents, as wheat weakness spills over and month-end positioning weighs on the market. Strong export sales support the structure, but the absence of new crop demand and favorable planting weather cap upside.
Soybeans
May ’26 CBOT soybeans are at $11.82, down 1/4 cent, in mixed trade as weak export demand and declining soybean meal prices offset strength in soy oil. The complex remains internally divided, with energy-linked demand supporting oils while protein markets remain under pressure.