Weather risk is back at the center of the grain trade, with a cold, dry start to May in the U.S., persistent safrinha dryness in Brazil, and a stronger biofuel demand bid helping keep the complex broadly firm.
Monday opens mixed in Chicago, with wheat easing after last week’s rally, corn slightly weaker, and soybeans higher. The market is still leaning on weather and demand: winter wheat faces cold and dry conditions across key U.S. areas, Brazil’s second-crop corn is losing moisture, and soylinked biofuel demand remains firm.
The biggest near-term driver is the U.S. weather setup. The source says the first half of May will be very cold and dry across key crop areas, with potentially severe impacts on winter wheat, while the Central and Southern Plains could see heavy precipitation, snow in parts of Colorado, and damaging cold for any emerging corn and soybeans. That is supportive for wheat and keeps corn and soybeans tied to a volatile planting and emergence window.
Brazil is the other major weather story. Rain missed much of the safrinha corn belt in Paraná over the weekend, and while showers are possible later in the week, they are expected to weaken as the front moves into central Brazil. The source says hot and dry conditions are unfavorable for filling corn in most areas, which keeps a supportive bias on corn prices.
Europe is also flashing production risk, especially for corn. Romanian corn acreage is seen dropping to the lowest level in more than 10 years as drought and high input costs discourage planting, while Hungary is warning of severe drought damage to agriculture after a dry April. That combination trims supply prospects and reinforces the broader bullish tone for grains, even if the immediate impact is most visible in European corn and wheat.
On the demand side, the U.S. is still showing solid domestic consumption. USDA’s March data showed soybean crush at 227.36 million bushels, up 6.15% from February and 9.98% from a year earlier, while corn used for ethanol reached 474.4 million bushels, up 10.2% from February and 4.76% year on year. That keeps a firm floor under corn and soy even as export competition remains uneven.
Biofuel policy remains one of the most important soy/oil catalysts in the source. The EPA’s record 2026 and 2027 biomass-based diesel mandates require a more than 60% production increase, while industry figures warn the current supply base is not close to what is needed. Malaysia is also set to begin B15 biodiesel production from June, Malaysia’s palm oil stocks fell to an eight-month low, and India’s palm oil imports dropped to a one-year low even as soyoil and sunflower oil imports rose. That combination keeps the soy oil complex supported and leaves palm oil prices sensitive to biofuel demand.
Wheat also has several demand and logistics angles to watch. Egypt says it has already bought more than one million tonnes of wheat from local farmers this season, while India has resumed wheat exports after four years but is likely to attract only urgent buyers because its wheat is still more expensive than Australian or Black Sea supply. That points to selective demand rather than a broad export surge, which caps some upside even as U.S. wheat stays weather-supported.
Freight and logistics are adding another layer of friction. Low water on the Rhine is forcing cargo vessels to sail only partially loaded, increasing freight costs, while Australia is warning about a mouse infestation in western grain areas that could affect food supply. These are not the dominant drivers this morning, but they add to the supply-side backdrop that continues to favor grains over the near term.
Wheat: The source did not provide a Monday opening quote for May ’26 CBOT wheat, but it says the contract is trading lower this morning after closing Friday at $6.24 1/2, up 3/4 cent, with Chicago SRW up 16 1/4 cents on the week, KC HRW up 23 1/2 cents, and MPLS spring wheat up 28 1/2 cents. Deliveries, a net long rebuild in managed money, and 24.859 MMT of export commitments at 102% of the USDA projection keep the fundamental tone constructive, while the U.S. cold/dry setup and drought signals in Hungary and parts of Europe remain supportive.
Corn: The source did not provide a Monday opening quote for May ’26 CBOT corn, but it says the market is 1 to 2 cents weaker in early trade after closing Friday at $4.68 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents, with May up 13 1/4 cents on the week and December up 14 1/2 cents. U.S. ethanol use, strong export commitments at 75.7 MMT, and the Brazilian safrinha dryness story keep corn supported, while the Romanian acreage cut and Hungary drought add another global supply-side tailwind.
Soybeans: The source did not provide a Monday opening quote for May ’26 CBOT soybeans, but it says the market is 3 to 8 cents higher this morning after closing Friday at $11.87 3/4, up 5 3/4 cents, with November up 27 cents on the week. Strong March crush, record biodiesel policy support, lower India palm imports, and firmer soy oil all keep the complex underpinned, even though export commitments are still 18% below last year.