Open Monday trade is firmer across grains, with wheat drawing early support from short positioning, solid export commitments, and pre-WASDE positioning. Traders are now focused on Tuesday’s USDA report, with the market trying to gauge whether the balance sheets and the Kansas HRW tour reinforce or soften the recent strength.
The Monday morning tone is broadly constructive, but the market is still trading against a busy Tuesday calendar. USDA’s May WASDE, the Kansas HRW wheat tour, and fresh balance-sheet estimates for corn and soybeans are likely to set the intraday tone.
Managed money has turned net short again in Chicago wheat, while specs remain net long in Kansas City wheat, leaving the complex split between technical pressure and regional support. That positioning mix helps explain why wheat is higher early Monday even after a weak weekly finish in July CBOT and Minneapolis wheat.
Export demand is still doing some of the heavy lifting for wheat. Old-crop wheat commitments are running 15% above last year and are slightly ahead of the normal sales pace, which keeps the market from losing too much footing despite the recent pullback in futures.
Tuesday’s WASDE is the main event for wheat traders. The Bloomberg survey points to a modest cut in old-crop US wheat stocks to 930 mbu, with new-crop stocks seen at 845 mbu, and that combination leaves room for either a supportive surprise or a quick correction if USDA proves more comfortable on supply.
The Kansas HRW wheat tour adds a weather-and-yield check just as the market is trying to price the new crop. Any signs of better-than-expected yield potential could cap Kansas City strength, while disappointing tour results would likely keep hard red wheat supported relative to Chicago.
Corn starts the day firmer, with front-month prices up 3 to 4 3/4 cents after Friday’s gains. The market is trying to balance supportive export momentum and strong commercial coverage against the fact that July and December still finished the week lower, so the WASDE number on old-crop stocks matters for follow-through.
Positioning is a clear support for corn. Managed money added heavily to its net long, while commercials expanded short exposure, which suggests the market still has speculative fuel underneath it even if the trade pauses ahead of Tuesday’s USDA release.
Export sales remain a major bullish anchor for corn, with commitments up 28% from last year and shipping pace running ahead of normal. That keeps the market fundamentally firmer than the weekly close suggests, especially with a South Korean tender for 210,000 MT also adding near-term demand interest.
Soybeans are opening the week with the strongest outright tone in the complex, up 8 to 15 cents in the front months. The market is leaning on a firmer meal tone, ongoing bean-oil positioning, and a rebound in China’s April imports, but export sales still lag last year, so Tuesday’s WASDE is a key checkpoint.
Managed money is still adding long soybean exposure, and bean oil specs remain at a record net long. That keeps the soybean complex sensitive to fund flows, especially because meal strength and bean oil deliveries are reinforcing the idea that the market is still being led by oilseed product demand rather than just the flat price.
China’s April soybean imports jumped sharply from a year earlier, which is a supportive backdrop for soybeans even though US export commitments remain below last year’s pace. That mismatch means soybeans can hold nearby support on China demand, but the market will still need USDA to avoid a bearish surprise on old-crop stocks to extend the rally.
Wheat: May ’26 CBOT wheat closed at $6.07 1/2/bu, up 5 3/4 cents, and is unchanged early Monday. Support comes from the net-short Chicago position, firm export commitments, and this week’s Kansas HRW tour, while the upcoming WASDE could reset expectations for old-crop and new-crop stocks.
Corn: May ’26 corn closed at $4.56 1/4/bu, up 3 1/2 cents, and is up 4 3/4 cents early Monday. The market is drawing support from strong export demand, a large managed-money net long, and a South Korean import tender, with Tuesday’s USDA stocks estimate the main intraday risk.
Soybeans: May ’26 soybeans closed at $11.94 1/4/bu, up 17 1/4 cents, and are up 15 cents early Monday. Strong meal, record bean-oil positioning, and the jump in China’s April imports are helping sentiment, but weaker export sales versus last year keep the market sensitive to the USDA stocks outlook.