Black Sea escalation keeps grain markets on edge, but weak weekly export sales numbers threaten to cap the upside heading into Thursday's session.
Wheat opens firmer for a second straight session as Black Sea supply risk continues to override a string of soft demand data, while corn and soybeans hold modest gains early despite an emerging profit-taking undertone.
Russia and Ukraine are trading escalating strikes across the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, with Russian forces hitting a vessel and port infrastructure at Odesa, Ukraine's primary export hub. Chornomorsk has sharply curtailed grain intake after repeated Russian strikes over recent weeks, even as two of Ukraine's three Black Sea ports continue operating close to normal for now. Ukraine has responded with strikes on Russian oil refineries and claims against at least five oil tankers. With freight insurance becoming scarce or prohibitively expensive out of the region, global importers are increasingly shifting purchases toward the EU, Australia, and South America, a dynamic that continues to lend underlying support to wheat even as the market digests disappointing demand news.
That demand news is not encouraging. This morning's USDA weekly Export Sales report showed just 235,102 MT of wheat sold in the week ending July 9, the lowest for the new marketing year to date and less than half the pace of the same week last year, well below the pre-report range of 250,000 to 600,000 MT. Corn old-crop sales of 314,962 MT also missed the low end of trade expectations, while new-crop bookings of 311,222 MT marked a six-week low, even though accumulated new-crop commitments remain 14.5% above last year. Soybean old-crop sales of 188,274 MT landed within estimates but were down 30.74% from the same week in 2025, though new-crop business of 1.77 MMT posted a marketing-year high, keeping the soybean demand picture more mixed than outright bearish.
Global wheat supply estimates continue to tighten at the margins. The International Grains Council held its world wheat production forecast unchanged at 821 MMT, but that steady headline number is not not being echoed at the country level. A German farm co-op is projecting 2026 wheat production down 5.6% year-over-year to 42.7 MMT, a day after France's Farm Ministry projected its own crop down 4% on the year. France AgriMer separately trimmed its outside-EU export forecast to 7 MMT, though it raised its estimate for French soft wheat stocks to 3.65 MMT. Layered on top of Black Sea disruption, the combination of lower US, EU, and now German output is reinforcing a path of least resistance to the upside for wheat, with volatility likely to stay elevated.
Corn's supply side is not immune to weather stress either. The IGC cut its 2026/27 world corn production forecast by 4 MMT to 1.306 billion tonnes, with the French crop forecast alone reduced by 3 MMT on excessive heat damaging yield potential. That production cut is providing a modest counterweight to the soft export sales figures and helping corn hold onto its overnight strength into the open.
US weather is delivering a split picture that keeps traders guessing on crop stress. The next seven days point to dry conditions across much of the Western Corn Belt, with only trace precipitation expected in Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri, and the Dakotas, while the Eastern Corn Belt should see 0.5 to 1.5 inches across Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. This week's temperature surge across the Northern Plains and central Midwest is expected to persist through the weekend, though the market has largely discounted that heat already. Next week brings a shift toward below-normal temperatures across the north-central Midwest and Eastern Corn Belt with normal rainfall, while the Western Corn Belt continues to run warm and dry. In France, scattered rain with some heavier localized totals over the past 24 hours is set to give way to a return of hot, dry conditions, keeping European wheat and corn crops under watch. South America is seasonably warm, with rain largely confined to southern Brazil and eastern-central Argentina, though heavy rain in Rio Grande do Sul risks delaying the second corn harvest there.
On the soybean side, the crush and stocks data are constructive even as futures ease. NOPA members crushed 214.3 million bushels of soybeans in June, roughly 10 million bushels above expectations and above the entire range of trade estimates, up from 209 million in May and just 185 million a year ago. Despite that record pace of crushing and higher soybean oil production, NOPA soyoil stocks fell to an eight-month low of 1.5 billion pounds, a 13.51% drawdown from May and below the range of pre-report estimates, pointing to a genuine surge in domestic soyoil usage rather than simply a production shortfall. Implied census crush is running 8.5% above year-ago levels, consistent with the current USDA forecast, underscoring firm domestic demand even as export business stays choppy.
A fresh trade headline is adding a layer of uncertainty to the soybean complex. The USTR has announced a new 25% tariff on Brazilian imports into the US, expected to take effect July 22 under Section 301, with exemptions carved out for beef, coffee, rare earths, and select other categories. Brazil's response is still pending, and the market has yet to fully price the potential knock-on effects for global soybean and product flows, particularly given how sensitive prices remain to any signal on Chinese demand. Meanwhile, US Gulf FOB soybean offers continue to hold a 5 to 20 cent premium over Brazilian offers through November even without recent flash sale announcements, a sign that US old-crop competitiveness is not yet being undermined by the tariff headlines.
Energy and macro conditions are offering little directional push into the open. Spot WTI crude is down $0.15 per barrel while RBOB and heating oil are each up $0.03 per gallon, a mixed energy tape that leaves biofuel-linked demand support largely unchanged. The US dollar is slightly higher and equity indices are mixed, keeping outside-market pressure on grains neutral for now. Ethanol production data released this week showed output slumping to 306 million gallons, down from 321 million the prior week and 4% below year-ago levels, the lowest weekly figure in ten weeks and the thirteenth straight week running below the pace needed to hit the USDA's usage forecast, a soft spot for corn demand that is being offset for now by continued export competitiveness as Brazil directs more of its own crop toward domestic use.
Wheat: Sept '26 CBOT wheat opens $0.06 higher at $6.83 1/2, having peaked just below the May high of $7.00 before easing back toward midday, where the contract last traded at $6.72 1/4, down 5 1/4 cents on the session. KC Sept '26 is $0.01 1/4 higher at $7.21 1/4 and MIAX Sept '26 is $0.01 higher at $6.84 1/4 at the open, both still holding the bulk of Wednesday's sharp gains, when Chicago SRW closed 26 to 32 1/2 cents higher, KC HRW closed 23 3/4 to 42 cents higher after touching the 45-cent daily limit intraday, and MPLS spring wheat closed 22 to 27 1/4 cents higher. Open interest gains of roughly 8,000 contracts in Chicago and 6,500 in KC point to fresh buying rather than pure short covering, with Black Sea supply disruption and shrinking German and French production estimates the dominant driver into the session.
Corn: Sept '26 and Dec '26 corn open $0.02 higher at $4.49 1/2 and $4.71 1/2, respectively, both stretching to fresh six-week highs. The move follows Wednesday's 5-to-9-cent gains, which drew spillover support from wheat's near-limit rally, and open interest rose nearly 7,800 contracts on Wednesday in a sign of net new buying. Weak weekly export sales and a slumping ethanol grind are offset by the IGC's cut to world production and continued US price competitiveness as Brazil consumes more of its own crop domestically, with export sales for the session expected in a 35-to-80-million-bushel range across both crop years.
Soybeans: Aug '26 soybeans open $0.03 1/4 higher at $12.05 1/2 while Nov '26 is $0.02 1/2 higher at $12.04 1/4, both holding below this week's high after Wednesday's rally pushed prices above the $12 round-number resistance. Aug '26 soymeal is $3.00 higher at $321.80 while Aug '26 soyoil has turned 5 points lower at 72.87, with crush margins firming a few cents to $3.04 1/2 per bushel. Record NOPA crush data and tightening soyoil stocks are providing underlying support, while the new US tariff on Brazilian imports and persistent uncertainty over Chinese demand keep the session's direction dependent on fresh trade or export headlines, with sales expected in a range of 36 to 80 million bushels of beans, 150,000 to 600,000 tons of meal, and negative 5,000 to positive 10,000 tons of oil.