StoneX’s elevated US production forecasts and a sharp drop in energy prices weigh on corn and soybeans, while wheat holds firmer and drier US weather opens the door for harvest to resume.
Grain markets are mixed on Friday, October 2. Corn and soybeans are lower after StoneX published large US production estimates, while wheat is modestly higher. Improving weather across the western Corn Belt and Plains should allow harvest activity to restart after recent heavy rainfall, adding seasonal pressure to row crops. Top News 02.10.2026
StoneX Production Estimates Pressure Row Crops
The largest overnight fundamental pressure comes from StoneX’s US production forecasts. The firm estimates US corn production at 16.115 billion bushels with an average yield of 182.1 bpa. Although the production figure was reduced by 92 million bushels from last month, it remains well above the September USDA forecast of 15.80 billion bushels. Top News 02.10.2026
The soybean estimate is even more bearish. StoneX raised US soybean production to 4.648 billion bushels, with yield at 54.1 bpa, up 101 million bushels from its September production forecast and well above USDA’s current 4.535 billion-bushel estimate. That contributed to soybeans falling to a new five-week low overnight. Top News 02.10.2026
Drying Weather Lets US Harvest Restart
Recent rainfall is finally moving out of the western Corn Belt and Plains, allowing harvest to gradually resume. Dry and seasonally warm conditions are expected across much of the central US into mid-October. Top News 02.10.2026
For corn and soybeans, renewed fieldwork should increase the flow of newly harvested supplies. Soybean basis premiums that were supported by delayed harvest could therefore begin to weaken as more beans reach processors.
Soybean Export Demand Improves, Led by China
Despite the larger production outlook, US soybean export demand remains a supportive counterweight. Weekly sales reached 1.034 MMT, up 77.45% from the previous week and nearly 27.25% above the same week last year. China was the largest buyer with 589,400 MT, followed by Egypt with 111,500 MT. Top News 02.10.2026
August soybean crush totaled 209.6 million bushels, 5.86% above last year but slightly below trade expectations. Soybean oil stocks fell to 1.696 billion pounds, down 13.58% from July and 5.14% below last year, providing some support to soybean oil even as beans and meal trade lower. Top News 02.10.2026
Corn Demand Offers Limited Support
US corn export sales were comparatively weak at 535,989 MT, the lowest result in the first four weeks of the new marketing year and less than half the volume sold in the same week last year. Mexico was the largest buyer with 252,200 MT. Top News 02.10.2026
Domestic ethanol demand was firmer. August corn use for ethanol reached 477.7 million bushels, 4% above last year, although total marketing-year usage of 5.547 billion bushels remained 3 million below the USDA projection. Top News 02.10.2026
Wheat Holds Firmer on Demand and Tighter Regional Supply Signals
Wheat is outperforming the row crops Friday morning. US weekly export sales reached 289,255 MT, up 8.11% from the previous week, while fresh international demand includes a 100,000 MT South Korean purchase and tenders from Taiwan and Saudi Arabia. Top News 02.10.2026
Ukraine’s agriculture minister expects winter crop seedings, including winter wheat, to decline 15% this year, while another source estimate in the report suggests Ukrainian wheat area could fall 17% for 2027. These expectations provide some underlying support to wheat supply sentiment. Top News 02.10.2026 Top News 02.10.2026
A sharp decline in energy is meanwhile limiting broader commodity support, with Nov ’26 WTI crude down $3.35/barrel at $89.55. Top News 02.10.2026
Wheat Futures
Dec ’26 Chicago wheat is up $0.05 at $6.88/bu. Dec ’26 Kansas City wheat is up $0.02 at $7.39 1/2/bu, while Dec ’26 Minneapolis wheat is up $0.02 at $6.99/bu. Export demand and expectations for lower Ukrainian winter crop area are supportive, while improving US moisture conditions limit weather-related upside. Top News 02.10.2026
Corn Futures
Dec ’26 corn is down $0.02 3/4 at $4.99 1/2/bu, with the next cited support at $4.88. StoneX’s 16.115 billion-bushel production forecast, weak weekly export sales and improving harvest weather are the main pressures, while stronger ethanol use provides some demand support. Top News 02.10.2026
Soybean Futures
Nov ’26 soybeans are down $0.07 1/2 at $12.76 1/2/bu, marking a new five-week low overnight. Dec ’26 soybean meal is down $4.80 at $348.50, while Dec ’26 soybean oil is up 35 points at 67.73. The larger StoneX production estimate and improving harvest conditions pressure beans, while strong Chinese export demand and lower soybean oil stocks provide some offsetting support.