Fresh Chinese purchases lift soybeans while corn remains capped after the USDA supply shock and wheat trades softer despite slower US planting and tightening Black Sea export prospects.
US grain markets begin Wednesday, October 14, with mixed trade. Soybeans are firmer after renewed Chinese buying, corn is steady after failing to extend its post-USDA rebound, and wheat is modestly lower. US harvest progress remains behind normal for both corn and soybeans, while rain moving through the central Midwest is expected to slow fieldwork during the next 48 hours.
Chinese Buying Gives Soybeans Fresh Support
The strongest demand signal comes from soybeans. China reportedly purchased 8–10 cargoes of US soybeans for December/January shipment, and USDA confirmed a private sale of 470,000 MT to China for 2026/27. The buying provides support after Chinese demand had slowed in recent weeks.
China imported 11.88 MMT of soybeans in September, down 7.7% year on year and 2.1% from August, while year-to-date purchases of 86.1 MMT remain less than 1% below last year. Sinograin is also scheduled to auction another 504,000 MT of imported soybeans on October 20 after selling 209,904 MT this week.
Harvest Delays Remain Supportive, but Rain Adds a Temporary Interruption
The delayed US crop progress report showed corn harvest at 33% complete, six percentage points behind the average pace. Iowa, Michigan, South Dakota, Ohio and Nebraska remain among the most delayed states. Corn condition ratings improved to 56% good to excellent.
Soybean harvest reached 46%, four percentage points behind normal, with particularly large delays in Iowa and Nebraska. Conditions remained unchanged at 57% good to excellent.
Rain has already interrupted harvesting in parts of Kansas, Missouri and Illinois, with further rainfall expected through Iowa, Nebraska, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. This may temporarily slow crop movement, although the seven-day outlook becomes somewhat drier after Friday.
Corn Still Struggles Below Technical Resistance
Corn remains unable to build a meaningful recovery after Friday’s bearish USDA revision. Dec ’26 futures rejected trade above the 100-day moving average on Tuesday and remain above Friday’s low, while longer-term support is identified at the August low of $4.57 1/4/bu.
The latest crop ratings and ear-count data suggest a US yield of 179.3 bpa and production of 15.865 billion bushels, still below USDA’s current 16.034 billion bushel forecast. The slower harvest provides some support, but the larger official supply estimate continues to cap rallies.
Wheat Demand Improves, but Export Competition Remains Heavy
Wheat receives some underlying support from slower US winter wheat planting and international demand. Planting reached 51%, compared with the five-year average of 58%, while emergence was 27% versus 32% normally.
Algeria reportedly bought 600,000–720,000 MT of milling wheat near $326/MT, with grain likely sourced from Russia through Baltic ports as well as Romania, Bulgaria and Argentina. At the same time, EU soft wheat exports reached 8 MMT, down 27% year on year.
Ukraine’s largest farm union expects 2026/27 wheat exports of no more than 11 MMT, compared with 14 MMT last year and USDA’s 12.5 MMT estimate. Shipments since July stand at only 3.13 MMT, down 44% year on year, keeping Black Sea availability an important supportive factor.
Energy Firmer as the Dollar Holds Slightly Higher
Spot WTI crude oil is up $1.45 at $95.60 per barrel, while the US dollar is slightly firmer. The macro backdrop is therefore mixed for agricultural markets, while the main grain-specific focus remains on Chinese soybean demand, delayed harvesting and export competition.
Wheat Futures
Dec ’26 Chicago wheat is down $0.02 3/4 at $6.66 1/2/bu. Dec ’26 Kansas City wheat is down $0.04 at $7.08/bu, while Dec ’26 Minneapolis wheat is down $0.02 at $6.92/bu. Slower US winter wheat planting, Algeria’s large purchase and weaker Ukrainian exports provide underlying support, but prices remain softer in early trade.
Corn Futures
Dec ’26 corn is steady at $4.82 1/2/bu. The contract continues to struggle below its 100-day moving average, while slow harvest progress and rain-related interruptions offer limited support against the larger USDA supply outlook.
Soybean Futures
Nov ’26 soybeans are up $0.08 at $12.92/bu. Dec ’26 soybean meal is up $0.70 at $363.90, while Dec ’26 soybean oil is up 18 points at 68.20. Fresh Chinese purchases are the main supportive factor, while harvest remains behind normal and crush margins have eased to $2.60/bu.