Soybeans and wheat test fresh multi-week lows while corn slips to a new weekly low, leaving Friday’s delayed US export sales as the key demand test for a broadly weaker grain complex.
US grain markets begin Friday, October 16, under broad pressure. Soybeans extend Thursday’s decline after weaker-than-expected September crush data, corn has fallen to a fresh weekly low, and Chicago wheat is testing its lowest level in roughly two and a half months. A moderately weaker US dollar offers some support, but improving harvest weather and questions over demand remain the dominant influences.
Export Sales Become Friday’s Main Demand Test
The delayed US export sales report is the principal catalyst for the session. Wheat sales for the week of October 8 are expected in a range of 300,000–600,000 MT, while expectations for 2026/27 corn sales are 0.5–1.2 MMT. Soybean sales are also expected between 0.5 and 1.2 MMT.
For corn in particular, demand needs to improve before the market can establish a firmer tone. The morning outlook notes that speculative length is being reduced while US farmers harvest what USDA currently describes as a better-than-expected crop.
Soybeans Remain Under Pressure After Weak Crush Data
Soybeans are extending their decline after Thursday’s NOPA report showed just 196.3 million bushels crushed in September, down 0.8% from a year earlier and 4.46% below August. The figure came in well below expectations and reinforced concerns around processing demand.
The morning outlook estimates that a NOPA crush near 196 million bushels would imply a census crush of about 201 million bushels, the lowest since July 2025. Crush in Iowa was down 13.2% year on year, while margins have eased by $0.06 to $2.61 1/2/bu.
There is nevertheless some strength in the product balance. Soybean oil stocks fell to 1.053 billion lbs, down 12.3% from the end of August and the lowest since November 2014.
Chinese Buying Has Not Been Enough to Reverse Soybean Weakness
USDA confirmed 330,000 MT of soybeans sold to China on Thursday for 2026/27, while another 283,450 MT was sold to unknown destinations. Announced soybean sales for the week consequently moved above 1 MMT.
Despite the fresh Chinese business, futures continued to weaken, showing that the demand signal has not yet been strong enough to offset the bearish influence from the crush data and broader supply outlook.
CONAB places Brazil’s 2026/27 soybean crop at 181.6 MMT, up 0.7% from last year but below USDA’s 186 MMT forecast. Brazilian soybean acreage is estimated at 49.3 million hectares, only 1.43% higher year on year.
Corn Tests New Weekly Lows as Harvest Weather Improves
Dec ’26 corn is under pressure near a fresh low for the week. Initial support is identified around last week’s $4.70 low, with secondary support at $4.57 1/4.
Weather is turning less supportive for prices. Light rain should linger around the Great Lakes for another 24 hours, but dry conditions across the Midwest over the coming week are expected to allow harvest progress to recover. Faster fieldwork can increase the movement of new-crop supplies and maintain seasonal pressure on prices.
South American supply also remains relevant. CONAB forecasts Brazil’s 2026/27 corn crop at 148 MMT, compared with USDA’s 139 MMT estimate, while BAGE puts Argentine planting at 35%, ahead of the normal pace.
Wheat Falls Despite Firmer Black Sea Physical Offers
Chicago and Kansas City wheat are leading Friday’s decline. Dec ’26 Chicago has fallen to a fresh 2 1/2-month low, with the next support identified near the August low at $6.45/bu.
The weakness in futures contrasts with the physical Black Sea market. Wheat offers from ports in Romania and Bulgaria have risen to three-year highs this week after Russian drone attacks damaged or sank vessels in coastal waters. That creates underlying support in the regional cash market even as US futures remain defensive.
Western Australian wheat production is meanwhile forecast at 10.9 MMT, up from the previous 10 MMT estimate but below last year’s 13.3 MMT harvest.
Wheat Futures
Dec ’26 Chicago wheat is down $0.09 1/2 at $6.60 1/2/bu. Dec ’26 Kansas City wheat is down $0.08 at $7.05/bu, while Dec ’26 Minneapolis wheat is down $0.01 at $6.85/bu. Chicago is at a fresh 2 1/2-month low, with the next support near $6.45/bu. Higher Romanian and Bulgarian port offers provide physical-market support, but US futures remain under pressure.
Corn Futures
Dec ’26 corn is down $0.01 1/2 at $4.76 1/2/bu. Prices have reached a new weekly low, with initial support near $4.70 and secondary support at $4.57 1/4. Improving Midwest harvest weather and large Brazilian production expectations remain bearish influences, while Friday’s export sales are the key demand test.
Soybean Futures
Nov ’26 soybeans are down $0.05 1/2 at $12.57 1/2/bu. Dec ’26 soybean meal is down $4.70 at $355.10, while Dec ’26 soybean oil is down 15 points at 67.00. Meal has reached a new weekly low, crush margins are down to $2.61 1/2/bu, and the weak September processing result continues to outweigh recent Chinese purchases.