A larger US corn balance set the bearish tone, while weak soybean processing and disappointing wheat demand outweighed Chinese buying, harvest delays and rising Black Sea risk.
Black Sea Region
Black Sea logistics became one of the most important regional market drivers this week as lower Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports collided with rising transport risk. Cargo insurance costs near Bulgaria have reportedly increased fivefold following attacks on commercial vessels, while Russia is redirecting more grain through Baltic routes and Ukraine is seeking additional capacity via Romania and the Danube. Romania plans to increase rail traffic toward Constanța from six to ten pairs of trains per day and expand traffic through the Sulina Canal, underlining how strongly grain pricing in the region is now being shaped by access to secure export routes rather than production alone.
GLOBAL MARKET
Grain markets ended the October 12–16 week broadly weaker. Corn never fully recovered from the previous Friday’s USDA supply shock, soybeans surrendered support from renewed Chinese buying after disappointing crush data, and wheat declined despite slower US planting and increasingly firm physical offers from the Black Sea region. By Friday, improving US harvest weather and continued speculative liquidation had reinforced the defensive tone.
Larger US Corn Supply Dominates the Week
Corn entered the week trying to stabilize after USDA raised US yield to 181.2 bpa and production to 16.034 billion bushels. Combined with a higher 2025/26 carryout, total supplies increased by 407 million bushels and projected 2026/27 ending stocks rose to 1.849 billion bushels, well above the previous estimate.
That supply increase kept rallies contained even when harvest delays provided temporary support. By midweek only 33% of US corn had been harvested, six percentage points behind the average pace, with particularly large delays in Iowa, Michigan, South Dakota and several other states. Rain through parts of the Plains and Midwest slowed fieldwork further.
The weather narrative then shifted again. By Friday, forecasts called for drier Midwest conditions during the following week, allowing harvest progress to recover and bringing seasonal supply pressure back to the forefront.
Chinese Buying Supports Soybeans, but Crush Data Wins the Battle
Chinese demand emerged as the strongest bullish soybean story of the week. Midweek reports indicated purchases of 8–10 US cargoes, followed by USDA confirmation of 470,000 MT sold to China. Further sales of 330,000 MT were confirmed Thursday, and another 558,000 MT followed Friday. Total private sales announced to China during the week reached 1.358 MMT.
The demand support was ultimately overwhelmed by processing weakness. NOPA reported September crush at only 196.3 million bushels, down 0.8% year on year and 4.46% from August, and well below expectations. Soybean oil stocks fell to 1.053 billion lbs, the lowest since November 2014, but the unexpectedly weak crush became the dominant price driver.
By Friday, the morning analysis indicated Iowa crush was down 13.2% year on year, while crush margins had fallen to $2.61 1/2/bu.
Harvest Delays Offer Only Temporary Support
US soybean harvest also remained slower than normal. By Tuesday’s delayed progress report, 46% of the crop had been harvested, four percentage points behind the normal pace, with particularly large delays in Iowa and Nebraska.
Rain across the central US briefly strengthened the case for slower crop movement, but that support faded as forecasts turned drier toward the end of the week. The market therefore moved from concern about harvest interruptions toward expectations for renewed fieldwork and increased new-crop availability.
Black Sea Risk Lifts Physical Wheat but Fails to Rescue Futures
Wheat presented one of the clearest contrasts between futures and physical markets. US winter wheat planting reached only 51%, seven percentage points behind the five-year average, while Algeria bought roughly 600,000–720,000 MT of milling wheat. Ukrainian wheat exports also remained constrained, with the country’s largest farm union expecting no more than 11 MMT in 2026/27 and shipments since July down 44% year on year.
Black Sea logistics added further support to regional physical values. Russian drone attacks damaged or sank vessels in coastal waters, and wheat offers from Romanian and Bulgarian ports rose to three-year highs.
US futures nevertheless weakened. Friday’s export sales showed only 319,901 MT of wheat sold, down 29.16% from the previous week and 47.89% from the same week last year.
Export Demand Improves for Corn, but Funds Keep Cutting Risk
Corn export demand provided one of the few stronger signals late in the week. USDA reported 1.122 MMT of 2026/27 sales for the week of October 8, up 45.9% from the previous week and a marketing-year high, although still 15.4% below the same week last year. Mexico was the largest buyer, followed by Japan and South Korea.
That improvement was not enough to reverse speculative liquidation. Managed money cut another 86,482 contracts from its corn net-long position, reducing it to 230,877 contracts by October 13. Soybean funds trimmed their net long by 14,169 contracts to 237,491, while Chicago wheat’s managed-money net short increased to 33,038 contracts.
South American Supply Remains an Additional Headwind
South American developments also kept supply pressure in the background. CONAB projected Brazil’s 2026/27 corn crop at 148 MMT, compared with USDA’s 139 MMT forecast, while BAGE placed Argentine corn planting at 35%, ahead of its normal pace.
For soybeans, CONAB projected Brazilian production at 181.6 MMT, below USDA’s 186 MMT forecast but still 0.7% above the previous year.
Wheat Futures
Dec ’26 CBOT wheat closed Friday at $6.60 1/2/bu, down 9 1/2 cents on the day and 10 1/2 cents for the week. Dec ’26 Kansas City wheat lost 15 1/4 cents for the week, while Dec ’26 Minneapolis wheat fell 18 3/4 cents. Weak US export demand and increasingly bearish speculative positioning outweighed Black Sea physical-market strength.
Corn Futures
Dec ’26 corn closed Friday at $4.74 1/4/bu, down 3 3/4 cents on the session. The larger US supply outlook, improving harvest weather and aggressive fund liquidation remained the dominant bearish influences, despite a marketing-year high in weekly export sales.
Soybean Futures
Nov ’26 soybeans closed at $12.61 1/4/bu, down 1 3/4 cents Friday and 30 3/4 cents for the week. Dec ’26 soybean meal lost $8.50 over the week, while Dec ’26 soybean oil fell 89 points. Renewed Chinese buying provided support, but weak crush data and the improving harvest outlook ultimately dominated.