Corn trades just above its August low while soybeans and wheat fall to fresh multi-month lows, as advancing US harvest activity and speculative selling outweigh another large Chinese soybean purchase.
US grain markets are weaker again at the start of Wednesday, October 21. Corn, soybeans and wheat are all under pressure as dry harvest conditions across much of the Midwest combine with continued speculative selling. Soybeans are receiving meaningful demand support from China, but even that has not been enough to reverse the broader bearish tone.
Harvest Pressure Returns to the Forefront
Dry conditions across much of the Midwest should allow US harvest progress to accelerate after recent delays. Showers are expected across the Plains and parts of the western Corn Belt during the weekend and early next week, but most of the central US remains sufficiently dry for fieldwork to continue.
That is particularly important for corn and soybeans. Corn harvest was only 44% complete as of October 18, eight percentage points behind the average pace, while soybean harvest had reached 64%, just one point behind normal. The improving weather therefore creates greater immediate supply pressure in both markets.
Corn Approaches Major Support as Funds Continue to Sell
Dec ’26 corn is trading at $4.58 1/2/bu, down 3 1/2 cents, holding only slightly above the August low at $4.57 1/4. Spot corn has now closed lower for six consecutive sessions.
Speculative liquidation remains a major factor. The managed-money net-long position is estimated at 182,000 contracts, while continued selling has kept the path of least resistance lower. Demand has not provided enough support to offset the pressure from harvest and positioning.
Brazilian competition is another consideration. ANEC estimates October corn exports at 6.87 MMT, up from last week’s estimate and above last year’s level, while Taiwan purchased 65,000 MT of corn expected to originate from Brazil.
Chinese Buying Supports Soybeans but Fails to Stop the Decline
Soybeans remain under pressure despite another significant Chinese purchase. USDA reported a private sale of 612,000 MT of soybeans to China for 2026/27, taking estimated Chinese purchases to roughly 17–17.5 MMT.
US Gulf FOB offers are also running $0.20–$0.30 below Brazilian offers through the end of the year, providing the US with a favourable relative pricing position. Even so, harvest pressure and speculative selling continue to dominate near-term futures pricing.
Nov ’26 soybeans have now closed lower for seven consecutive sessions and are trading at a fresh two-month low. The next technical support is the 100-day moving average at $12.27 1/4.
Soy Products Add to the Defensive Tone
Soybean meal and oil are also weaker. Dec ’26 meal is down $2.40 at $346.30, while Dec ’26 soybean oil is down 40 points at 66.33. Both remain just above their October lows.
Crush margins have fallen another $0.04 to $2.49/bu, adding to the weaker processing backdrop. At the same time, soybean open interest increased by 12,800 contracts, indicating that participation remains elevated even as prices decline.
Wheat Falls to Fresh Three-Month Lows
Wheat is again under broad pressure, with all three major classes falling to fresh three-month lows. Dec ’26 Chicago wheat is down $0.06 at $6.37/bu, Kansas City is down $0.08 1/2 at $6.82 1/2, and Minneapolis is down $0.03 at $6.58 3/4.
The speculative position has become increasingly bearish. Managed money is estimated to hold a 43,000-contract net short in Chicago wheat, the largest in three months, while open interest increased in both Chicago and Kansas City.
The price decline may eventually improve US competitiveness, but for now the market remains under pressure despite winter wheat planting running behind normal. Planting is 63% complete, six percentage points behind the five-year average, with emergence at 39%.
Black Sea Trade Remains an Important Wheat Variable
Black Sea security remains relevant after NATO discussed regional security and decided to send additional assets to the area. At the same time, Russian grain continues to reach major buyers, with Iran the largest importer since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year at 1.72 MMT, followed by Egypt at 1.35 MMT and Azerbaijan at 0.545 MMT.
For US wheat, the key question is whether the recent price decline becomes sufficient to improve competitiveness in the global market.
Energy Offers Limited Broader Support
Energy prices are firmer, with Dec ’26 WTI crude oil up $0.70 at $98.50/barrel, while spot RBOB is up $0.02/gallon. The US dollar is little changed. These macro influences provide some underlying support, but they have not been strong enough to offset harvest pressure and speculative selling across grains.
Wheat Futures
Dec ’26 Chicago wheat is down $0.06 at $6.37/bu. Dec ’26 Kansas City wheat is down $0.08 1/2 at $6.82 1/2/bu, while Dec ’26 Minneapolis wheat is down $0.03 at $6.58 3/4/bu. All three classes have fallen to fresh three-month lows, while the growing Chicago speculative short continues to reinforce the bearish tone.
Corn Futures
Dec ’26 corn is down $0.03 1/2 at $4.58 1/2/bu. The contract is holding just above the August low at $4.57 1/4, with improving harvest conditions and continued speculative liquidation keeping downside pressure intact.
Soybean Futures
Nov ’26 soybeans are down $0.06 at $12.42 1/4/bu. Dec ’26 soybean meal is down $2.40 at $346.30, while Dec ’26 soybean oil is down 40 points at 66.33. Another large Chinese purchase and competitive US Gulf offers provide demand support, but harvest pressure continues to dominate and beans have fallen to a fresh two-month low.