Soybeans and corn open modestly firmer, but Black Sea peace expectations, advancing US harvest activity and routine demand keep the broader grain complex defensive.
US agricultural markets are mixed to slightly firmer at the start of Thursday, October 22. Corn and soybeans are attempting to stabilize after a prolonged decline, while wheat remains largely unchanged to lower. Harvest pressure and speculative positioning continue to restrain prices, while Chinese soybean buying, stronger energy markets and oversold conditions provide some underlying support.
Higher Energy Prices Offer Macro Support
Dec ’26 WTI crude oil is up $2.25/barrel at $99.40, while spot RBOB is $0.07/gallon higher and heating oil is up $0.14. The US dollar is little changed in two-sided trade, while US stock indices are lower. The stronger energy complex provides some support to agricultural markets, although it has not been enough to override crop-specific supply and demand pressure.
Dry Midwest Weather Keeps Harvest Pressure Intact
Much of the central Midwest and eastern Corn Belt is expected to remain dry, allowing US harvesting to regain momentum. Weekend rain should affect the Plains and parts of the western Corn Belt before extending into the north-central Midwest early next week, but meaningful harvest delays are expected to remain largely confined to Nebraska and southeastern South Dakota.
For corn and soybeans, this keeps seasonal supply pressure in place. The soybean harvest is expected to exceed 80% by the end of the weekend, limiting the ability of strong export demand to generate a sustained price recovery.
Corn Stabilizes, but Demand Must Improve
Dec ’26 corn is trading at $4.65/bu, up 1 3/4 cents, rebounding after six consecutive lower closes. Money managers are estimated to hold a net-long position of around 186,000 contracts, while open interest increased by nearly 6,000 contracts.
Ethanol production improved to 322 million gallons, compared with 313 million the previous week, but corn usage of 15.34 million bushels per day remained below the 15.57 million needed to reach the USDA forecast. Weekly export sales are expected in a range of 28–60 million bushels. The market therefore still requires stronger demand or a more threatening South American weather outlook to generate a more meaningful recovery.
Competition from Brazil remains substantial. Brazilian corn shipments to Europe surged to 1.65 MMT in October 2026, compared with only 200,000 MT in October 2025. At the same time, SovEcon cut Ukraine’s corn export forecast by another 18% to 17.2 MMT, compared with the USDA estimate of 22 MMT.
Chinese Demand Continues to Support Soybeans
Nov ’26 soybeans are trading at $12.47 1/2/bu, up 2 1/4 cents, attempting to avoid a ninth consecutive lower close. Support below the market is identified at $12.28.
Recent flash sales have likely taken Chinese purchases of US soybeans to around 17.5 MMT. US Gulf FOB offers remain $0.20–$0.40 below Brazilian offers through the end of the year, providing the US with a favourable price position. Weekly soybean export sales are expected at 65–110 million bushels.
China’s Sinograin is also scheduled to auction another 512,000 MT of soybeans from government reserves on October 27. Strong Chinese buying therefore continues to provide demand support, although accelerating US harvest activity limits the immediate bullish impact.
Wheat Remains Pressured by Black Sea Peace Expectations
Wheat is steady to slightly lower after heavy losses in the previous session. Hopes for progress toward peace in the Black Sea region continue to limit upside, following news that Russia agreed to resume talks with the US and Ukraine. Grain exports from the Black Sea have been severely restricted during the previous two months.
The Morning Outlook states that trilateral talks between the US, Russia and Ukraine are scheduled for November 10. At the same time, speculative pressure remains substantial: the managed-money short position in Chicago wheat has risen to approximately 49,000 contracts, the largest in three months.
Black Sea Wheat Supply Remains Restricted
SovEcon cut its Ukraine wheat export forecast by another 7.7% to 14.4 MMT, compared with the USDA estimate of 12.5 MMT. Ukraine exported only 3.8 MMT from July through September, the lowest level in 15 years.
Russian exports, meanwhile, are expected by IKAR to reach 3 MMT in both October and November, after 2.5 MMT in September. This creates a mixed wheat backdrop: expectations for improved Black Sea navigation pressure futures, but actual Ukrainian export availability remains constrained.
South American Production Adds Supply Pressure
South American crop expectations remain an important counterweight to weather risk. The Rosario Grain Exchange held Argentina’s 2026/27 corn production estimate at 67.5 MMT, compared with the USDA estimate of 55 MMT. Its soybean forecast was maintained at 47.8 MMT, compared with USDA’s 50 MMT.
For wheat, Rosario raised Argentina’s 2026/27 crop estimate by 13% to 23.8 MMT, compared with the USDA estimate of 21.5 MMT. The larger Argentine wheat outlook adds another supply-side constraint to a market already struggling to sustain rallies.
Wheat Futures
Dec ’26 Chicago wheat is steady at $6.28 1/4/bu. Dec ’26 Kansas City wheat is also steady at $6.73/bu, while Dec ’26 Minneapolis wheat is down $0.01 1/2 at $6.50/bu. Black Sea peace expectations and the growing Chicago speculative short position limit upside, while reduced Ukrainian export availability provides underlying supply support.
Corn Futures
Dec ’26 corn is up $0.01 3/4 at $4.65/bu. The contract is attempting to recover after six consecutive lower closes, but corn usage for ethanol remains below the pace needed to reach the USDA forecast and stronger demand is still required for a sustained rebound.
Soybean Futures
Nov ’26 soybeans are up $0.02 1/4 at $12.47 1/2/bu. Dec ’26 soybean meal is steady at $348, while Dec ’26 soybean oil is up 35 points at 66.33. Support for soybeans is located at $12.28. Chinese purchases of around 17.5 MMT and competitive US Gulf FOB offers provide demand support, but an accelerating US harvest continues to limit the upside.