Soybean export sales surge and another vessel is struck in the Black Sea, but advancing US harvest activity, weak wheat demand and continued speculative liquidation keep the broader grain market restrained.
US agricultural markets are quiet and mixed at the start of Friday, October 23. Soybeans are modestly firmer on exceptional weekly export sales and continued Chinese buying, wheat is attempting a limited rebound after reaching fresh three-month lows, while corn remains under pressure as harvest advances and speculative traders continue to reduce long exposure. Higher energy prices provide some macro support, but a moderately stronger US dollar works in the opposite direction.
Energy Strength Provides Support, but the Dollar Firms
Dec ’26 WTI crude oil is up $2.00/barrel at $101.50, remaining below its contract high. Spot RBOB is $0.04/gallon higher and heating oil is up $0.03. At the same time, the US dollar is moderately stronger and US equity indices are lower.
The stronger energy complex provides an underlying supportive influence for agricultural commodities, but Friday’s grain trade remains dominated by crop-specific fundamentals rather than the macro backdrop.
US Harvest Keeps Corn and Soybean Supply Moving
Dry weather across much of the central Midwest and eastern Corn Belt continues to support harvest progress. Rain is expected in the Plains and parts of the western Corn Belt during the weekend before extending toward the north-central Midwest early next week, but meaningful harvest delays are expected to remain concentrated in Nebraska and southeastern South Dakota.
US soybean harvest is expected to exceed 80% by the end of the weekend, while the corn harvest has likely already moved beyond the halfway point. The rapid movement of new crop supply continues to cap nearby price recovery, particularly in corn.
Corn Struggles to Find a Bottom
Dec ’26 corn is trading at $4.59 1/2/bu, down $0.01. Prices are still struggling to establish a bottom as harvest pressure combines with continued speculative liquidation. Open interest fell by roughly 10,000 contracts in the previous session, reinforcing the evidence that speculative length continues to leave the market.
Demand remains the more important constraint. US corn exports are reported 34% below last year to date, compared with the USDA forecast for a decline of only 4%. Weekly export sales were considerably stronger at 1.527 MMT, up 36.1% from the previous week, but still 45.9% below the corresponding week last year. Mexico was the largest buyer at 477,700 MT.
South American production forecasts are also described as considerably above USDA estimates, adding another source of supply pressure to a corn market already dealing with the US harvest.
Soybean Export Sales Deliver the Strongest Demand Signal
Soybeans remain the strongest demand story of the session. Weekly 2026/27 export sales reached 2.841 MMT, more than four times the previous week and 170.89% above the same week last year. China accounted for 2.179 MMT, while Mexico bought 232,200 MT and the Netherlands 84,500 MT.
The weekly figure was almost 1 MMT above the previously known daily announcements of 1.877 MMT, underlining the strength of the sales programme. USDA also reported a separate private sale of 202,000 MT to China on Thursday, while total announced sales to all destinations during the current week reached 1.488 MMT.
Estimated Chinese purchases have now likely reached around 18 MMT, while US Gulf FOB offers remain $0.20–$0.40 below Brazilian offers through the end of the year. This price advantage provides meaningful demand support even as the US harvest advances.
Soybeans Break Their Eight-Session Losing Streak
Nov ’26 soybeans are trading at $12.55 1/2/bu, up 2 1/2 cents. Spot futures ended an eight-session run of consecutive lower closes on Thursday with a modest gain. Technical support below the market remains at $12.28.
Soybean meal is also firmer, with Dec ’26 meal up $1.10 at $348.40, while Dec ’26 soybean oil is down 10 points at 66.65. Crush margins are little changed at $2.44 1/2/bu.
China’s Sinograin is scheduled to auction another 512,000 MT of soybeans from government reserves on October 27, providing a further demand-side development to monitor alongside continuing US sales.
Wheat Demand Remains the Major Weakness
Wheat is showing a modest rebound after falling to fresh three-month lows during the week, but US demand remains clearly disappointing.
Weekly US wheat export sales totaled only 239,627 MT, a six-week low and 29.79% below the same week last year. Mexico was the largest buyer at 98,000 MT.
The broader export picture is similarly weak. US wheat exports are down 33% year on year, compared with the USDA forecast for a 17% decline, while commitments of only 392 million bushels are described as the second lowest in decades.
A South Korean mill is tendering for 50,000 MT of US wheat, which offers a potential near-term demand catalyst, but current export performance remains the principal limitation on wheat prices.
Another Black Sea Vessel Attack Challenges Peace Optimism
The wheat market continues to balance expectations for potential peace talks against continuing Black Sea security risk. Another merchant vessel was struck overnight in the Black Sea, even as trilateral talks between the US, Russia and Ukraine are scheduled for November 10.
Peace expectations have helped push wheat toward fresh three-month lows, but the latest vessel attack demonstrates that physical shipping risk remains unresolved.
Speculative positioning is also heavily bearish. The managed-money net short in Chicago wheat is estimated at approximately 50,000 contracts, the largest in three months.
Plains Rain Could Improve Winter Wheat Conditions
NOAA’s seven-day forecast indicates more than 2 inches of rain from the Texas Panhandle through western Kansas and into Nebraska during the coming week. With winter wheat establishment underway, the rainfall provides potential moisture support to the crop, although it may locally slow fieldwork.
US winter wheat acreage experiencing drought has declined by 4 percentage points to 49%, while FranceAgriMer estimates French wheat planting at 45% complete, ahead of 42% last year.
Wheat Futures
Dec ’26 Chicago wheat is up $0.01 at $6.25 3/4/bu. Dec ’26 Kansas City wheat is unchanged at $6.65 3/4/bu, while Dec ’26 Minneapolis wheat is up $0.05 at $6.47/bu. The wheat outlook cites next support at $6.25 and a contract low at $6.21. Weak US export demand and a large speculative short position limit the rebound, while the latest Black Sea vessel strike provides underlying risk support.
Corn Futures
Dec ’26 corn is down $0.01 at $4.59 1/2/bu. Harvest pressure and continued speculative liquidation remain the dominant bearish influences. Weekly export sales improved to 1.527 MMT, but year-to-date export performance remains substantially weaker than the pace implied by the USDA forecast.
Soybean Futures
Nov ’26 soybeans are up $0.02 1/2 at $12.55 1/2/bu. Dec ’26 soybean meal is up $1.10 at $348.40, while Dec ’26 soybean oil is down 10 points at 66.65. Technical support for beans remains at $12.28. Exceptional weekly export sales, Chinese purchases approaching an estimated 18 MMT and competitive US Gulf FOB offers provide the strongest demand support across the grain complex, although an advancing US harvest continues to limit upside.