A sharp fall in the Brazilian real makes Brazilian soybeans more competitive against US supplies, while aggressive fund liquidation, advancing harvest activity and weak wheat demand keep the broader grain complex under pressure.
US grain markets begin Monday, October 26, on the defensive. Soybeans are leading the decline after Brazil’s election result triggered a sharp selloff in the real, while corn trades at a fresh 3 1/2-month low and wheat remains close to multi-month lows. Strong soybean export inspections provide some demand support, but the immediate market tone is being shaped by currency moves, harvest pressure and speculative selling.
Brazilian Currency Shock Pressures Soybeans
The dominant market development is the sharp move in Brazil following the weekend election. The Brazilian real fell more than 9% against the US dollar, making Brazilian soybeans cheaper relative to US supplies and immediately pressuring Chicago soybean futures.
Nov ’26 soybeans opened sharply lower and are trading at a fresh two-month low. The currency move is particularly important because it directly affects export competitiveness at a time when US soybeans have been benefiting from strong Chinese demand.
Soybean Demand Remains Strong Despite the Price Break
US soybean export inspections totaled 2.476 MMT, or 90.99 million bushels, in the week ending October 22. That was 19.7% above the previous week and more than double the same week last year. China was the largest destination at 1.652 MMT, followed by Mexico at 264,556 MT and Egypt at 114,266 MT.
Marketing-year soybean shipments have now reached 9.705 MMT, 42.4% ahead of the same period last year. Chinese purchases of US soybeans are estimated near 18 MMT, while Sinograin is scheduled to auction another 512,000 MT from government reserves on Tuesday.
This strong demand profile limits the bearish interpretation of Monday’s price decline, but the weaker Brazilian currency has created a new competitive challenge.
Fund Liquidation Adds Pressure Across the Soy Complex
Managed money reduced its soybean net-long position by 30,555 contracts to 206,936 contracts as of October 20. Soybean meal funds remain heavily long at 204,693 contracts, less than 3,000 contracts below the record long established in late September.
The broader soybean complex has therefore entered Monday with significant speculative exposure still in place. The Morning Outlook estimates the combined long position at 481,487 contracts, a two-month low after additional liquidation in soybeans, meal and oil.
Corn Falls to a Fresh 3 1/2-Month Low
Dec ’26 corn is trading at $4.53 1/2/bu, down 2 1/2 cents, after touching a fresh 3 1/2-month low overnight. Fund liquidation remains a major bearish influence: money managers sold another 85,000 contracts during the week ending October 20, reducing their net-long position to roughly 146,000 contracts.
US harvest progress is also adding seasonal pressure. The outlook estimates harvest had reached around 60% by the weekend, while weather conditions across much of the central and eastern Corn Belt remain favourable for fieldwork.
Corn Export Demand Remains Weak
US corn export inspections totaled 625,233 MT, or 24.61 million bushels, in the week ending October 22 and were 49.68% below the same week last year. Mexico was the largest destination at 351,681 MT. Marketing-year exports stand at 9.776 MMT, 7.67% below the same period last year.
Fund positioning reinforces the weak price tone. Managed money reduced its corn net-long position by another 84,620 contracts, leaving the position at 146,257 contracts as of October 20.
Brazil’s first corn crop is meanwhile estimated at 58% planted, slightly ahead of last year’s 55% pace.
Wheat Remains Near Multi-Month Lows
Wheat continues to struggle near three- to four-month lows. Hopes for progress in Black Sea peace discussions have reduced risk premium, while weak US export demand continues to weigh heavily on prices.
US wheat export inspections fell to 183,824 MT, down 27.89% from the previous week and 31.87% from the same week last year. Marketing-year shipments stand at 7.419 MMT, 35.35% below the corresponding period last year.
Speculative positioning is also strongly bearish. Managed money held a net short of 51,134 Chicago wheat contracts as of October 20, while the Morning Outlook estimates that position may have expanded to around 60,000 contracts by Friday’s close.
Weather Favors US Harvest and South American Planting
Weather remains broadly harvest-friendly across the US. The central Midwest and eastern Corn Belt are expected to stay dry this week, with only limited delays in Nebraska and southeastern South Dakota. Above-normal temperatures are expected through the first full week of November.
In South America, widespread rain fell from east-central Argentina into southern Brazil over the weekend. Additional rain is expected across central and northern Brazil, while Argentine rainfall should favor southern growing regions. Brazil’s soybean planting is already estimated at 40% complete, ahead of the 36% average pace.
Energy Weakens as the Dollar Strengthens
Dec ’26 WTI crude oil is down $2.10/barrel at $101.15, while the US dollar is moderately stronger. A firmer dollar adds another headwind for US agricultural competitiveness, particularly as the Brazilian real weakens sharply.
Wheat Futures
Dec ’26 Chicago wheat is down $0.01 at $6.24/bu. Dec ’26 Kansas City wheat is down $0.02 1/2 at $6.62/bu, while Dec ’26 Minneapolis wheat is down $0.01 1/2 at $6.40/bu. All three classes remain near three- to four-month lows. Weak US exports, a large speculative short position and Black Sea peace expectations continue to cap prices, while continued fighting preserves some underlying risk.
Corn Futures
Dec ’26 corn is down $0.02 1/2 at $4.53 1/2/bu, trading at a fresh 3 1/2-month low. Harvest pressure, weak export performance and aggressive fund liquidation remain the dominant bearish drivers.
Soybean Futures
Nov ’26 soybeans are down $0.18 1/2 at $12.38/bu. Dec ’26 soybean meal is down $6.50 at $339.60, while Dec ’26 soybean oil is down 34 points at 66.49. Soybeans are at a two-month low, with next support at the 100-day moving average of $12.29 1/4. Strong US export demand provides underlying support, but the sharp decline in the Brazilian real has shifted the immediate competitiveness advantage toward Brazil.