Corn and Wheat Firm as Markets Search for a Seasonal Low

Grain markets are mostly higher Thursday morning as attention shifts toward export demand and next week’s USDA production and WASDE updates, while soybeans remain constrained by fund liquidation, weak crush economics and a fresh seven-month low in soybean oil.

US agricultural markets begin Thursday, November 5, on a firmer footing. Corn and wheat are posting moderate gains, while Jan ’27 soybeans are also higher around the $12 mark. The recovery follows several sessions of pressure and comes as traders begin testing whether seasonal lows are forming. Export sales are the immediate catalyst, while production and stocks expectations ahead of next week’s USDA updates are increasingly shaping the broader outlook.

Markets Test for a Seasonal Bottom

The agricultural complex is attempting to stabilize after recent declines. Energy prices have also rebounded, with spot WTI crude up $2.05/barrel at $90.15, RBOB gasoline up $0.06/gallon and heating oil up $0.10. The US dollar is little changed and equity markets are mixed.

The focus is increasingly shifting toward next week’s USDA production and WASDE updates. The Reuters poll referenced in the outlook points toward slightly higher US soybean production but lower corn production, creating different supply expectations across the two crops.

Corn Finds Support From Ethanol Demand

Dec ’26 corn is up 2 cents at $4.46 1/4/bu, after briefly trading above Wednesday’s high.

Domestic demand has improved. Weekly ethanol production reached the equivalent of 336 million gallons, the highest in ten months, while corn use was 112 million bushels, above the pace needed to reach USDA’s usage forecast for a second consecutive week.

The EIA update also showed ethanol production at 1.143 million barrels per day, up 25,000 bpd from the previous week, while stocks declined by 89,000 barrels to 24.434 million barrels.

This is supportive for corn because stronger processing demand reduces some of the pressure created by large supply expectations.

Record September Corn Exports Strengthen the Demand Side

September US corn exports reached a record 7.084 MMT, 0.48% above the previous year’s record, although 4.56% below August.

Ethanol exports were also up 35.99% year on year to 208.99 million gallons, while distillers grain exports reached 1.094 MMT.

Weekly export sales due Thursday are expected between 0.8 and 1.8 MMT for 2026/27. Strong recent business with Mexico has helped improve the tone, although South American weather remains too comfortable to generate meaningful supply risk.

Corn Production Expectations Become the Next Major Test

The Reuters poll average places US corn production at 15.961 billion bushels, 73 million bushels below USDA’s October forecast. Ending stocks are expected to decline by only 9 million bushels to 1.840 billion.

The analyst outlook in the source is more bearish, expecting production at 16.055 billion bushels and ending stocks at 1.870 billion.

This divergence makes next week’s USDA production update particularly important. Corn is attempting to build a seasonal bottom, but a larger crop would make a sustained recovery more difficult.

Soybeans Hover Around $12 After Eight Straight Lower Closes

Jan ’27 soybeans are up 4 cents at $12.06/bu, but the contract has closed lower for eight consecutive sessions.

The next stated technical support is the August low at $11.80 3/4. Dec ’26 soybean meal is up $1.00 at $319.60, while Dec ’26 soybean oil is down another 45 points at 63.04, establishing a fresh seven-month low. The next stated support for soybean oil is near 61.50.

The small rebound in beans therefore does not yet signal a clear change in trend.

Fund Liquidation and Weak Crush Margins Keep Soybeans Vulnerable

Managed money’s combined long position across the soybean complex has fallen to approximately 360,000 contracts, down sharply from the recent record of 558,000 contracts.

Speculative traders continue to reduce exposure because South American weather remains non-threatening. Open interest declined in both soybeans and meal, while soybean oil open interest surged by 12,200 contracts.

Crush margins weakened another $0.07 to $1.93/bu, while soybean oil product value slipped to 49.7%. This deterioration limits the ability of stronger export demand to generate a sustained rally.

Soybean Production Expectations Lean Bearish

The Reuters poll average for US soybean production is 4.597 billion bushels, 35 million above USDA’s October forecast.

Ending stocks are expected to rise by 16 million bushels to 331 million, while the analyst estimate in the Morning Outlook calls for production of 4.592 billion bushels and ending stocks of 335 million.

That supply outlook is a clear headwind, particularly while speculative longs continue to decline.

Export Demand Still Provides a Soybean Floor

US soybean trade data remain relatively strong.

September Census exports reached 3.655 MMT, 22.93% above last year and the highest for the month in six years. USDA also reported a private sale of 167,000 MT of soybeans to Spain for 2026/27.

Thursday’s export sales are expected between 0.95 and 2.5 MMT, with soybean meal sales forecast at 250,000–500,000 MT and soybean oil at 0–10,000 MT.

Brazilian competition remains relevant, although ANEC sees November soybean exports at 3.33 MMT, 0.9 MMT below last year if realized.

Wheat Rebounds Ahead of Export Sales

Wheat is firmer Thursday morning. Dec ’26 CGO is up 3 1/2 cents at $6.02/bu, Dec ’26 KC is up 4 1/2 cents at $6.37 1/2, and Dec ’26 MIAX is up 3 cents at $6.20.

The move follows another weak session on Wednesday, but prices remain within the previous day’s ranges.

Export demand remains critical. September Census wheat exports totaled 1.546 MMT, down 14.83% from August and less than half the same month last year. Weekly export sales are expected in a range of 300,000–650,000 MT.

Black Sea Trade and Peace Talks Remain Central for Wheat

Ukraine’s grain shipments rose 26% in October to nearly 1.1 MMT. Roughly 20% moved through Danube river ports, with the remainder shipped through western land borders.

At the same time, markets are awaiting trilateral peace talks between the US, Russia and Ukraine in the UAE on November 10–11.

Any development that improves Black Sea trade conditions could add pressure to wheat, while the absence of progress would maintain logistical and geopolitical uncertainty.

Dry US Weather Should Help Harvest Finish

Rain moved through the eastern Corn Belt and northern Midwest, but the system is now moving east.

Aside from some lingering showers in the northern Midwest and Great Lakes, the next seven days are expected to be largely dry across the US midsection. That should allow the remaining harvest to finish without major delays.

South American weather is also described as generally favorable, with rain favoring southern and east-central Brazil and only scattered showers elsewhere. The lack of a threatening South American forecast remains a limiting factor for corn and soybeans.

Wheat Futures

Dec ’26 CGO wheat is up 3 1/2 cents at $6.02/bu. Dec ’26 KC is up 4 1/2 cents at $6.37 1/2, while Dec ’26 MIAX is up 3 cents at $6.20. Weak September exports remain a bearish demand signal, while upcoming US-Russia-Ukraine talks keep Black Sea trade risk central to the price outlook.

Corn Futures

Dec ’26 corn is up 2 cents at $4.46 1/4/bu. Strong ethanol usage, record September exports and large recent Mexico sales are helping the market attempt a seasonal bottom. The key obstacle remains supply, with next week’s USDA production update likely to determine whether the recovery can extend.

Soybean Futures

Jan ’27 soybeans are up 4 cents at $12.06/bu. Dec ’26 soybean meal is up $1.00 at $319.60, while Dec ’26 soybean oil is down 45 points at 63.04, a fresh seven-month low. Jan soybean support is at $11.80 3/4, while soybean oil support is near 61.50. Continued fund liquidation, weaker crush margins and expectations for a larger US crop remain the main headwinds.