Wheat is carrying the heaviest pressure into Friday, while corn and soybeans trade more steadily as the market prepares for next week’s US production and WASDE updates.
Grain markets are mixed at the start of Friday, with wheat falling to fresh lows on expectations that upcoming peace talks could produce a ceasefire, while corn holds just above its weekly low and soybeans attempt to stabilise after nine consecutive lower closes. A sharply stronger US dollar and generally non-threatening weather are also limiting upside.
Ceasefire Expectations Pressure Wheat
Wheat is the clear underperformer, with Chicago and Kansas City contracts falling to new eight-to-nine-month lows and Minneapolis reaching a new contract low. Prices are being pressured by expectations that next week’s talks between the US, Russia, Ukraine and the EU could result in a ceasefire, reducing the geopolitical risk premium currently embedded in the market.
The weakness comes despite an overnight deal in which Illinois-based Hang Tung Resources signed agreements with Chinese buyers worth $600 million for wheat and sorghum.
USDA Reports Become the Next Major Catalyst
Attention is shifting toward Tuesday’s US Crop Production and WASDE reports. For corn, the Reuters average estimate points to production of 15.962 billion bushels, below USDA’s October forecast, with ending stocks expected at 1.840 billion bushels.
For soybeans, analysts expect production to rise to 4.597 billion bushels, while ending stocks are seen increasing to 331 million bushels. Wheat stocks are expected to edge higher, although the outlook remains relatively stable compared with the larger potential adjustments in corn and soybeans.
Export Performance Shows a Sharp Crop Divide
Export demand remains one of the clearest differences between the three markets. US corn export sales are running 34% below last year, compared with USDA’s current forecast for only a 4% decline, leaving the market well behind the expected pace.
Soybeans are showing the opposite picture. Accumulated exports are up 76% year on year, far stronger than USDA’s projected 12% increase. Wheat export business, meanwhile, stands at 12.18 MMT, down 28% from last year and behind the normal five-year pace.
China Remains Critical for Demand
China continues to provide an important demand signal, particularly for soybeans. USDA reported a private sale of 136,000 MT of soybeans to China for 2026/27, while another 101,000 MT of corn was sold to unknown destinations.
However, broader agricultural purchases remain linked to trade policy. China’s Commerce Minister indicated that additional purchases of US agricultural products depend on both sides implementing the proposed $60 billion reciprocal tariff-cut agreement, keeping trade negotiations an important demand variable.
Fund Liquidation Keeps Soybeans Vulnerable
Soybeans are trying to stabilise, but speculative liquidation continues to weigh on the complex. The combined managed-money long position has fallen to 342,000 contracts from a recent record of 558,000 as traders reduce exposure amid relatively favourable South American forecasts.
January soybeans have now closed lower for nine consecutive sessions. Support is identified at the August low of $11.80 3/4, making this level important if selling pressure resumes.
Weather Favors Harvest Progress
US weather remains generally favourable for the final stages of harvest. Dry conditions are expected across much of the country’s central production area over the next week, which should allow remaining fieldwork to progress without major disruption.
South American conditions are also broadly manageable. Much of Argentina and far southern Brazil are expected to stay dry, while scattered rain is forecast across the rest of Brazil. Argentina’s corn planting has reached 51%, well above its historical average, while soybean planting stands at 5%.
Stronger Dollar Adds External Pressure
The US dollar is sharply higher and trading at new highs for the week, creating an additional headwind for US agricultural markets. Energy is mixed, with spot WTI crude oil up $0.30 at $90.80 per barrel, while RBOB is slightly lower and heating oil higher.
The US jobs report is another macro catalyst for Friday, with payroll growth expected at 60,000 in October and unemployment expected to remain at 4.2%.
Wheat Futures
Dec ’26 Chicago wheat is down 11 cents at $5.88 1/4/bu, reaching a new eight-to-nine-month low. Dec ’26 Kansas City wheat is down 10 1/2 cents at $6.25/bu, while Dec ’26 Minneapolis wheat is down 7 cents at $6.13/bu, a new contract low. Ceasefire expectations remain the dominant bearish driver.
Corn Futures
Dec ’26 corn is up 1/2 cent at $4.40 1/2/bu, holding just above this week’s low. The market is balancing expectations for lower US production against weak export performance, while speculative traders remain modestly net long.
Soybean Futures
Jan ’27 soybeans are up 2 cents at $11.90/bu after nine consecutive lower closes, with support at $11.80 3/4. Dec ’26 soybean meal is up $3.00 at $320.20, while Dec ’26 soybean oil is down 34 points at 61.90. Strong export performance provides support, but continued fund liquidation and favourable South American weather remain limiting factors.