Black Sea region
The Black Sea region remained a major source of competitive pressure on European wheat this week, with stronger Russian and Ukrainian supply limiting the potential for a sustained price recovery. Russian wheat exports were estimated at around 3 million tonnes in October, while more than 120,000 tonnes of 12.5% protein wheat were offered through Baltic ports at USD 258–261/tonne FOB; Ukrainian wheat also continued to reach international markets through Romania. At the same time, the future access of Ukrainian agricultural products to the EU market is emerging as an important structural issue that could reshape regional trade flows and intensify competition on third-country markets.
Soybeans suffered the heaviest pressure this week, while corn struggled against weak export momentum and wheat ended lower as improving peace prospects reduced geopolitical support.
US grain and oilseed markets finished the week on the defensive despite several supportive demand signals. Large corn sales to Mexico and strong soybean commitments to China were not enough to offset rising production expectations, non-threatening South American weather and aggressive speculative liquidation. By Friday, attention had shifted decisively toward next Tuesday’s USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports.
Soybeans Become the Weakest Link
Soybeans were the clear underperformer. The market began the week under pressure and continued lower as speculative traders reduced historically large long positions. By the week ending November 3, soybean speculators had cut their net long by 52,601 contracts to 132,799, with much of the move driven by long liquidation.
The selling came despite strong export demand. Accumulated soybean commitments for 2026/27 reached 30.234 MMT, up 76% from the same period last year and equal to 66% of USDA’s export projection, well ahead of the 54% average pace. China remained an active buyer, including a further 136,000 MT private sale on Friday.
Supply expectations, however, became increasingly bearish. StoneX raised its US soybean production estimate to 4.725 billion bushels earlier in the week, while Friday’s market was preparing for a Bloomberg survey estimate of 4.596 billion bushels and a 0.4 bpa increase in yield to 53.5 bpa. WASDE is expected to show ending stocks rising by 17 million bushels to 332 million.
China Demand Supports Soybeans but Cannot Stop the Sell-Off
Chinese demand remained one of the strongest supportive themes of the week. USDA reported soybean sales to China on Monday and again on Friday, while export inspections earlier in the week showed China taking 1.524 MMT out of total weekly shipments of 2.445 MMT. Marketing-year shipments were 56% above the previous year at that stage.
Even so, the market increasingly questioned whether strong export demand could offset larger supply expectations and favourable South American planting conditions. Brazilian soybean planting remained ahead of last year, while forecasts were generally viewed as non-threatening. That combination encouraged funds to keep reducing exposure.
Corn Demand Improves, but Export Pace Remains Too Weak
Corn received one of the week’s strongest individual demand signals when USDA announced a 1.73 MMT sale to Mexico, followed by additional sales to Mexico and South Korea. Ethanol demand also improved, with production reaching 336 million gallons and corn use running above the pace needed to meet USDA’s annual forecast for a second consecutive week.
Yet the broader export picture remained bearish. Accumulated 2026/27 corn sales were 24.79 MMT by Friday, down 34% year on year, equal to only 30% of USDA’s export projection and 41% behind the five-year average pace. Managed money also flipped to a net short of 22,900 contracts, a bearish weekly move of 78,843 contracts.
The market therefore ended the week caught between supportive expectations for a slightly smaller US crop and weak demand performance. The Bloomberg survey ahead of Tuesday’s NASS report sees yield down 0.6 bpa to 180.6 bpa and production cut by 54 million bushels to 15.98 billion.
Wheat Loses Geopolitical Support
Wheat began the week with some underlying support but weakened as geopolitical expectations shifted. The announcement of US-Russia-Ukraine talks in the UAE for November 10–11 initially increased focus on the Black Sea, and by Friday expectations that the talks could produce a ceasefire had become a clear bearish influence on prices.
Export demand remained uneven. Monday’s wheat inspections were only 75,413 MT, the lowest weekly total since records began in 1983, although Thursday’s export sales improved to 538,028 MT, the second-highest total of the current marketing year.
Fund positioning reinforced the bearish tone. Managed money increased its net short in Chicago wheat to 88,726 contracts and in Kansas City wheat to 6,722 contracts by the end of the week.
South American Weather Removes Risk Premium
Weather provided little reason for grain markets to build a risk premium. Brazilian soybean planting remained ahead of last year, Argentina’s corn planting reached 51% by Friday and South American forecasts were repeatedly described as generally favourable or non-threatening.
In the US, rain temporarily slowed harvest activity early in the week, but the outlook turned drier later, allowing corn and soybean harvests to move toward completion. This reduced the likelihood of significant harvest disruption and kept seasonal supply pressure intact.
Politics and Macro Markets Add Volatility
The US midterm election became an important cross-market driver. After Democrats gained control of both the House and Senate, agricultural markets initially interpreted the result as bearish, particularly for soybean demand, on concerns that China and other buyers might be less committed to previous US agricultural purchase agreements.
Energy markets were volatile through the week, while the US dollar moved from a five-week low midweek to new weekly highs by Friday. These macro shifts added volatility but did not overturn the dominant bearish agricultural themes of supply expectations, fund liquidation and weak corn and wheat export performance.
USDA Becomes the Next Major Test
By Friday, the market’s focus had shifted almost entirely to Tuesday’s USDA Crop Production and WASDE updates. Expectations point toward lower corn production but higher soybean production and stocks, while wheat ending stocks are expected to show only a modest increase.
The reports will test whether this week’s selling has already incorporated the more bearish soybean supply outlook and whether lower corn production can offset the persistent weakness in export demand.
Wheat Futures
Dec ’26 CBOT wheat closed Friday at $5.91 1/4/bu, down 8 cents on the session. Kansas City December wheat lost 11 3/4 cents for the week, while Minneapolis December fell 7 3/4 cents. Ceasefire expectations and expanding speculative short positions outweighed the improvement in weekly export sales.
Corn Futures
Dec ’26 corn closed at $4.41 1/2/bu, up 1 1/2 cents on Friday, but finished the week 6 1/4 cents lower. Large sales to Mexico and improved ethanol use offered support, but weak accumulated exports and a sharp shift by managed money into a net short kept the market under pressure.
Soybean Futures
Nov ’26 soybeans closed Friday at $11.89/bu, up 8 cents on the session. January soybeans were down 40 1/2 cents for the week, making soybeans the clear underperformer. Strong Chinese demand was overwhelmed by long liquidation, larger production expectations and favourable South American weather.