Corn is firmer, soybeans are stabilising after last week’s sell-off and wheat remains under pressure as traders prepare for Tuesday’s USDA reports and peace talks in the UAE.
US grain markets begin Monday with a mixed tone. Corn is modestly higher, soybeans are steady after ending a nine-session losing streak on Friday, while wheat remains soft as speculative shorts continue to build. Attention is concentrated on Tuesday’s USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports, alongside scheduled US-Russia-Ukraine talks in the UAE.
USDA Reports Take Centre Stage
Tuesday’s USDA reports are the immediate fundamental catalyst. The Reuters average estimate places US corn production at 15.962 billion bushels, 72 million below USDA’s October figure, with ending stocks expected at 1.840 billion bushels.
For soybeans, the market expects production of 4.597 billion bushels, 35 million above USDA’s October forecast, while ending stocks are seen rising to 331 million bushels. Wheat stocks are expected to rise by 6 million bushels to 746 million.
China Remains Central to US Demand
US officials continue to press China over agricultural purchases. Treasury Secretary Bessent and USTR Greer held a conference call with Chinese counterparts on Friday, emphasising fulfilment of China’s US agricultural purchase agreement. President Trump is also expected to meet Chinese leader Xi at the APEC summit in China in less than two weeks.
Soybean demand remains the strongest part of the US export picture. Chinese purchases are estimated at 19–19.5 MMT, while accumulated US soybean commitments are 76% above last year. Corn demand remains more uncertain despite recent export activity.
Fund Positioning Adds Pressure
Speculative positioning remains an important bearish influence. Money managers sold nearly 79,000 corn contracts, flipping to a net short for the first time in four months. By Friday’s close, the speculative short position was around 22,000 contracts.
Across the soybean complex, money managers sold 127,000 contracts, cutting their combined long position to 285,000 contracts from the recent record of 558,000. Wheat positioning is even more defensive, with the combined managed-money short across the three classes reaching 105,000 contracts, the largest in nine months.
South American Weather Remains Supportive for Crops
Weather continues to reduce risk premium in South America. Widespread rains reached Brazil over the weekend, with the heaviest totals in the interior South, while moderate rainfall in western-central Mato Grosso helped restore soil moisture. Further moderate to heavy precipitation across central and northern growing areas over the next two weeks is expected to benefit yield prospects.
Brazilian soybean planting has reached 64%, ahead of 61% last year, while first-crop corn planting stands at 71%, close to last year’s 72%. Argentina also received moderate weekend rainfall, with further rain expected across western and northern production areas.
Ukraine Supply Estimates Shift
Black Sea supply estimates remain important for both wheat and corn. APK-Inform raised its Ukrainian wheat production forecast by 1 MMT to 26.5 MMT and also increased its export forecast by 1 MMT.
In corn, however, APK-Inform cut Ukrainian production by 2.7 MMT to 29.1 MMT and reduced its export forecast by 10% to 18 MMT. This compares with USDA’s estimates of 31.8 MMT production and 22 MMT exports.
Wheat Watches UAE Peace Talks
Wheat remains sensitive to developments surrounding the scheduled US-Russia-Ukraine talks on Tuesday and Wednesday in the UAE. At the same time, recent price weakness has improved the competitiveness of US wheat in global markets.
EU soft wheat exports through November 1 reached 9.7 MMT, up 2.6% year on year, while SovEcon lowered its Russian 2026/27 wheat export estimate by 0.7 MMT to 36 MMT.
Energy Weakens While the Dollar Eases
Energy prices are sharply lower at the start of the week, with spot WTI crude down $3.60 at $87.25 per barrel, RBOB down $0.09 per gallon and heating oil down $0.08. The US dollar is moderately weaker but remains within Friday’s range, while US equity markets are higher.
The softer energy complex is a negative external influence for agricultural markets, while the weaker dollar offers some offset through improved US export competitiveness.
Wheat Futures
Dec ’26 Chicago wheat is steady at $5.91/bu. Dec ’26 Kansas City wheat is down 3 cents at $6.29 1/2/bu, while Dec ’26 Minneapolis wheat is down 1 1/2 cents at $6.14 1/2/bu. Heavy speculative short positioning and the upcoming peace talks remain the main bearish influences.
Corn Futures
Dec ’26 corn is up 1 1/2 cents at $4.43/bu. Expectations for slightly lower US production and reduced Ukrainian crop and export forecasts are supportive, but the move into a speculative net short and uncertain demand continue to limit upside.
Soybean Futures
Jan ’27 soybeans are steady at $11.94/bu after Friday ended a nine-session losing streak. Dec ’26 soybean meal is down $1.50 at $317.70, while Dec ’26 soybean oil is up 10 points at 62.35. Strong exports and Chinese demand provide support, but larger US production expectations and favourable Brazilian weather remain limiting factors.