Corn and soybeans open modestly firmer while wheat trades mixed, with today’s USDA reports and US-Russia-Ukraine talks in the UAE setting up a potentially volatile session.
Agricultural markets are mostly higher on Tuesday morning as traders position ahead of today’s USDA Crop Production and WASDE updates. Wheat is mixed, corn is firmer and soybeans are slightly higher, while markets are also highly sensitive to headlines from the trilateral US-Russia-Ukraine talks in the UAE, where reopening the Black Sea for agricultural shipments is expected to be part of the agenda.
USDA Reports Are the Main Immediate Catalyst
Corn production expectations remain slightly below USDA’s October estimate. The Reuters average is 15.962 billion bushels, down 72 million bushels, while ending stocks are expected at 1.840 billion bushels. The source analyst is more bearish on supply, projecting production at 16.055 billion and stocks at 1.870 billion bushels.
For soybeans, the Reuters average points to 4.597 billion bushels of production, 35 million above USDA’s October forecast, with ending stocks expected at 331 million bushels. The source estimate is 4.592 billion bushels of production and 335 million bushels of stocks. Wheat ending stocks are expected by the Reuters poll to rise 6 million bushels to 746 million, while the source analyst expects them to remain at 740 million.
US Harvest Progress Remains Slower in Corn
The US corn harvest advanced only 7 percentage points to 81% complete, below the five-year average of 86%. The biggest delays remain in Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska and South Dakota, where just over 1.7 billion bushels are still in the field.
Soybean harvest is further advanced at 92%, one point ahead of average. Dry conditions across most of the Midwest through the end of the week should allow both harvests to move closer to completion, limiting the risk of prolonged field delays.
South American Weather Remains Favourable
Weather across Argentina and Brazil is generally supportive for crop development. Argentina is expected to see a favourable mix of rain, sunshine and above-normal temperatures, supporting planting progress and early crop development.
In Brazil, precipitation is expected to become less frequent in the South and heavier in northern areas, which is also viewed as favourable for crops. The lack of a significant South American weather threat continues to limit upside potential, particularly for soybeans.
Soybean Demand Remains Strong Despite Lower Chinese Imports
US soybean export inspections reached 1.896 MMT in the latest week, down 24.5% from the previous week but 68.6% above the same period last year. China remained the largest destination at 1.266 MMT. Marketing-year shipments have reached 14.14 MMT, up 58.3% year on year.
At the same time, China imported 7.35 MMT of soybeans from all origins in October, down 22.5% year on year, while year-to-date imports reached 93.5 MMT, down 2.2%. Estimated Chinese purchases of US soybeans stand at 19.5–20 MMT.
Wheat Balances Better Crop Conditions Against Black Sea Risk
US winter wheat conditions improved more than expected. Planting is 89% complete, just below the five-year average of 90%, while good/excellent ratings rose 5 percentage points to 49%, compared with expectations for only a 2-point improvement.
The stronger crop condition is bearish, but geopolitical risk remains important. The recent decline in prices has improved US wheat competitiveness, while the market may rebuild war premium if the UAE talks fail to produce progress on Ukraine-Russia peace or reopening Black Sea agricultural trade.
Energy Weakness Adds External Pressure
Energy markets remain defensive. Spot WTI crude is down $1.50 at $85.30 per barrel after touching a two-month low overnight. RBOB is down $0.03 per gallon and heating oil is down $0.15.
The US dollar is slightly firmer ahead of key inflation data. October CPI is expected to rise 0.3%, compared with 0.6% in September, while core CPI is expected at 0.2%. Lower energy prices are a negative external influence for agricultural markets, especially vegetable oils.
Wheat Futures
Dec ’26 Chicago wheat is up 1 cent at $5.89/bu. Dec ’26 Kansas City wheat is up 4 cents at $6.36 1/2/bu, while Dec ’26 Minneapolis wheat is down 1 cent at $6.21/bu. Improved US crop ratings limit upside, while Black Sea geopolitical risk remains supportive if the UAE talks fail to deliver progress.
Corn Futures
Dec ’26 corn is up 2 3/4 cents at $4.42/bu, holding within Monday’s range. The next support level is the contract low at $4.25 3/4. Slower US harvest progress and expectations for slightly lower USDA production are supportive, while managed money has extended its net short position to 31,000 contracts.
Soybean Futures
Jan ’27 soybeans are up 1 1/4 cents at $11.89 1/2/bu, with next support at the August low of $11.80 3/4. Dec ’26 soybean meal is up $1.30 at $322, while Dec ’26 soybean oil is down 37 points at 61.66, holding above last week’s low of 61.34. Strong US export performance supports beans, but higher production expectations and favourable South American weather cap the upside.