Corn, soybeans and wheat open slightly lower as markets digest this week’s USDA revisions, monitor Black Sea negotiations and wait for fresh ethanol and export data.
Agricultural markets are mostly lower on Thursday morning, with price movement limited. Corn is steady to slightly weaker, soybeans are down modestly and wheat is under pressure after Wednesday’s gains. With USDA’s November reports already absorbed, the market is turning toward Black Sea developments, ethanol demand and South American weather.
Black Sea Talks Deliver Limited Progress
US officials met both Russian and Ukrainian counterparts in Abu Dhabi, and the talks produced some progress, including agreement on a prisoner swap. However, there was no breakthrough on either a ceasefire or reopening the Black Sea for agricultural shipments.
That keeps geopolitical risk firmly in the wheat market. Continued disruptions could reverse part of the recent sell-off, while any meaningful improvement in Black Sea logistics would likely increase competitive pressure on international wheat prices.
Wheat Faces High Global Stocks but Tight Black Sea Supply
The latest USDA balance remains fundamentally heavy for wheat. US ending stocks were raised by 3 million bushels to 743 million, while world carryout increased by 4.78 MMT to 280.82 MMT. Global production was lifted by 5.12 MMT, including higher estimates for Argentina, Australia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
At the same time, Black Sea supply remains less comfortable. SovEcon cut its Russian 2026/27 export forecast by another 0.7 MMT to 36 MMT, below USDA’s revised 39 MMT estimate, and does not expect Black Sea shipping to return to normal until next spring. Algeria reportedly bought around 700,000 MT of wheat near $313/MT CF, with supplies believed to include Argentina, Russia, Bulgaria and Romania.
Corn Holds a Higher Floor After USDA Cuts
Corn continues to absorb the tighter US balance from this week’s USDA report. US yield was cut to 179.6 bpa and production to 15.893 billion bushels, down 141 million bushels from October. Ending stocks were reduced by 91 million bushels to 1.758 billion.
Attention now turns to ethanol demand. EIA data are expected to show production near 336 million gallons, unchanged from the prior week and above the pace needed to reach USDA’s corn-use forecast for a third consecutive week. However, speculative selling has pushed managed money back to a net short of around 17,000 contracts.
Brazil remains an important counterweight. USDA raised its 2026/27 crop estimate to 141 MMT, narrowing the gap with Conab’s 148 MMT, while ANEC now sees November corn exports at 7.21 MMT. The larger South American supply limits upside unless weather becomes more threatening.
Soybeans Stay Supported by Tight US Stocks
Soybeans remain underpinned by the tighter US balance sheet. USDA raised production by only 12 million bushels to 4.574 billion, while ending stocks were cut to 300 million bushels in Tuesday’s report. With US supplies tighter than expected, there is now less room for South American yields to disappoint.
Brazilian planting is approaching 75%, while Argentina is only beginning its campaign. Chinese purchases are estimated around 20 MMT. After USDA raised US soybean exports by 25 million bushels to 1.720 billion, the balance available to non-Chinese buyers becomes more important. Speculative traders have also rebuilt their combined long position across the soybean complex to around 294,000 contracts.
South American Weather Remains Non-Threatening
Weather continues to limit risk premium. Argentina is seeing a favourable combination of rain, sunshine and above-normal temperatures for planting and early crop development. In Brazil, heavier rainfall is shifting toward western-central and northern growing areas where moisture is more needed.
In the US, rain around the Great Lakes and eastern Corn Belt may slow the final stage of harvest, but the western Corn Belt remains dry. The second-week outlook also points to above-normal precipitation across the Plains and western Corn Belt, helping further ease drought conditions as winter wheat heads toward dormancy.
Macro Signals Stay Mixed
Energy markets are modestly lower, with spot WTI crude down $0.75 at $85.80 per barrel, RBOB down $0.01 per gallon and heating oil down $0.02. The US dollar is little changed after reaching a fresh 19-month high overnight, while PPI data are due Friday.
A firm dollar remains a headwind for US export competitiveness, while softer energy limits support for the broader commodity complex.
Wheat Futures
Dec ’26 Chicago wheat is down 3 cents at $5.96 1/2/bu. Dec ’26 Kansas City wheat is down 5 1/2 cents at $6.33 1/2/bu, while Dec ’26 Minneapolis wheat is down 3 1/2 cents at $6.32/bu. Higher global stocks remain bearish, but continued Black Sea supply disruptions and lower Russian export expectations could provide support.
Corn Futures
Dec ’26 corn is unchanged at $4.48/bu in quiet two-sided trade. This week’s USDA cuts to US production and stocks have raised the price floor, while ethanol production near 336 million gallons would remain supportive. A stronger move above current levels will likely require a more threatening South American weather outlook.
Soybean Futures
Jan ’27 soybeans are down 4 1/2 cents at $12.26 1/2/bu, with next resistance at the 100-day moving average of $12.52 1/2. Dec ’26 soybean meal is down $1.60 at $328.10, while Dec ’26 soybean oil is down 15 points at 63.73. The tighter US balance remains supportive, but favourable South American weather limits immediate upside.