Corn and soybeans strengthen on fresh export business, while wheat rallies as the market questions whether renewed peace talks can restore Black Sea trade flows.
Grain markets are firmer on Friday, with wheat, corn and soybeans all trading higher. Strong US corn export sales and fresh soybean business are providing demand support, while wheat is gaining despite very weak US sales as uncertainty around Black Sea supply and renewed peace negotiations returns a geopolitical premium to the market.
Corn Demand Provides the Strongest Signal
US corn export sales reached 2.88 MMT for 2026/27 in the week ending November 5, near the upper end of the 2–3 MMT trade expectation range. That was a marketing-year high and 194.2% above the same week last year. USDA also announced a private sale of 303,800 MT to Mexico, including 272,820 MT for 2026/27 and 30,480 MT for 2027/28.
The stronger weekly number is supportive, but the broader export picture remains mixed. Year-to-date commitments are still down 28% from last year, compared with USDA’s revised forecast for a decline of only 4.5%. Mexico remains central to demand, accounting for 77 million bushels of old-crop purchases and all of the reported new-crop sales.
Brazil Keeps Corn Supply Pressure in Place
CONAB left Brazil’s corn production forecast unchanged at 148 MMT, with the first crop at 32.1 MMT and second crop at 113.3 MMT. The estimate remains above USDA’s 141 MMT forecast, although CONAB lowered its export outlook by 3 MMT as more corn is expected to move into domestic use.
This week’s USDA revisions appear to have raised the US price floor, but March ’27 corn would likely need a more threatening South American weather outlook to trade and hold above $4.75.
Soybeans Gain on Export Business and Tight US Supply
Soybeans are also supported by fresh demand. USDA reported private sales of 134,000 MT to China, 120,000 MT to Vietnam and 100,000 MT to unknown destinations, all for 2026/27. Weekly sales totaled 1.155 MMT, a four-week low but still 155.96% above the same week last year and within expectations.
Year-to-date commitments remain particularly strong, running 78% above last year compared with USDA’s revised projection of only 13.5% growth. Known commitments to China stand at 16.637 MMT, with another 5.37 MMT booked to unknown destinations. The tighter US production and stocks outlook leaves less room for South American yields to fall below trend, increasing the importance of the developing Brazilian and Argentine crops.
Sunflower Oil Disruptions Add Support to the Oil Complex
Russian missile attacks forced Ukraine to suspend operations at two major sunflower oil processing plants. The disruption adds another supportive element for vegetable oils at a time when Dec ’26 soybean oil has already reached a new weekly high.
Brazilian soybean production remains unchanged at 181.6 MMT in CONAB’s forecast, below USDA’s 186 MMT estimate. Brazilian planting is approaching 70%, while Argentina’s campaign is only beginning, leaving much of the South American growing season still ahead.
Wheat Rallies Despite Very Weak US Export Sales
US wheat export sales were only 182,844 MT for the week ending November 5, well below the Reuters expectation range of 350,000–650,000 MT. This was a marketing-year low and 60.46% below the same week last year, while new-crop sales were zero.
Despite the weak demand signal, wheat is stronger as confidence in a rapid reopening of Black Sea trade appears to be fading. Ukrainian wheat exports as of November 13 were 4.11 MMT, down 39% year on year. Russian grain exports through seaports reached 2.8 MMT in October, down 56%, while 2026/27 year-to-date shipments at 9 MMT are 54% lower. Continued Black Sea disruptions are therefore offsetting some of the bearish pressure from high global stocks.
South American Wheat Estimates Diverge
Argentina’s Rosario Grains Exchange raised its wheat production forecast by 0.5 MMT to 24.3 MMT, above USDA’s 23 MMT estimate. Brazil moves in the opposite direction, with CONAB cutting its wheat forecast by 0.5 MMT to around 5.3 MMT, compared with USDA’s 5.8 MMT estimate.
In France, wheat planting has reached 90%, ahead of the 82% average pace. US winter wheat area affected by drought remained unchanged at 48%.
Wheat Futures
Dec ’26 CBOT wheat is up 9 cents at $5.93 1/4/bu. Chicago SRW is broadly 8–9 cents higher, KC HRW is up 7–9 1/4 cents and Minneapolis spring wheat is 6–7 1/4 cents higher. Weak US export sales remain bearish, but Black Sea supply disruption and doubts over reopening trade routes are providing stronger support today.
Corn Futures
Dec ’26 corn is up 3 1/2 cents at $4.46/bu. Strong weekly export sales and additional Mexican buying are supporting prices, although weaker year-to-date commitments and Brazil’s large production outlook continue to limit the upside. March ’27 would likely need to hold above $4.75 to establish a stronger advance.
Soybean Futures
Nov ’26 soybeans are up 16 cents at $12.43/bu, while most contracts are gaining 9–14 cents. Fresh sales to China, Vietnam and unknown destinations reinforce the strong year-to-date demand picture. Jan ’27 soybeans have reached a new monthly high, with next resistance at the 100-day moving average of $12.53 1/2.