Black Sea Region
The most important Black Sea development this week came from Turkey, where state grain agency TMO announced international tenders for 500,000 tonnes of wheat following a record 23 MMT domestic crop and stocks exceeding 10 MMT. At the same time, Turkey’s 2026/27 wheat imports are forecast to fall 56% to around 2.8 MMT. The combination of lower import demand and larger Turkish export availability could materially reshape regional wheat flows and increase competition among Black Sea suppliers for international buyers.
Soybeans led the week after a bullish USDA surprise and strong export demand, corn found a firmer price floor, while wheat remained caught between heavy global stocks and unresolved Black Sea disruption.
Grain markets finished the week with a much firmer tone than they began. The decisive turning point came with Tuesday’s USDA reports, which delivered significantly tighter US corn and soybean balances than traders had expected. Soybeans emerged as the strongest market, while corn recovered enough to finish modestly higher for the week.
Wheat followed a different path. Larger global production and stocks kept the fundamental balance bearish, but uncertainty surrounding Russia-Ukraine talks and continued weakness in Black Sea exports prevented geopolitical risk from disappearing.
USDA Resets the Corn and Soybean Balance
Tuesday’s USDA update was the week’s most important fundamental catalyst. US corn yield was cut by 1.6 bpa to 179.6 bpa, versus expectations for a much smaller reduction, while production fell 141 million bushels to 15.893 billion. Ending stocks were reduced by 91 million bushels to 1.758 billion.
Soybeans produced an even stronger market reaction. US production was raised by only 12 million bushels to 4.574 billion, below expectations, while ending stocks were cut by 15 million bushels to 300 million as exports were increased by 25 million. Global soybean stocks fell to 123.50 MMT.
The revisions raised the price floor for both crops. Corn still faces ample South American supply, but the US balance is less comfortable than it appeared at the start of the week. For soybeans, the smaller stock cushion leaves considerably less room for South American yields to disappoint.
Soybeans Become the Week’s Clear Outperformer
Soybeans delivered the strongest performance across the grain complex. The tighter USDA balance triggered a sharp rally on Tuesday, and although prices consolidated later in the week, renewed export buying pushed the market higher again into Friday.
Weekly US soybean sales reached 1.155 MMT. That was a four-week low, but still 155.96% above the same week last year. China was the largest buyer at 689,200 MT, while USDA also announced fresh private sales of 134,000 MT to China, 120,000 MT to Vietnam and 100,000 MT to unknown destinations.
The broader demand picture is even stronger: year-to-date commitments are 78% above last year compared with USDA’s revised forecast for growth of 13.5%. Known commitments to China stand at 16.637 MMT, with another 5.37 MMT booked to unknown destinations.
Corn Finds Support, but South America Caps the Upside
Corn also benefited materially from USDA’s production and stock cuts. The report stopped the earlier deterioration in prices and established a firmer downside floor.
Demand improved sharply by Friday. US 2026/27 export sales reached 2.88 MMT, a marketing-year high and 194.2% above the same week last year. Mexico was the dominant buyer at 1.955 MMT, while USDA separately reported another 303,800 MT private sale to Mexico.
The bullish demand signal is tempered by the longer-term export picture. Year-to-date US corn commitments remain 28% below last year against USDA’s revised forecast for a decline of only 4.5%. Brazil also remains a major supply counterweight, with CONAB holding production at 148 MMT compared with USDA’s 141 MMT forecast.
South American Weather Removes Immediate Risk Premium
South American weather remained largely non-threatening through the week. Rains across Brazil improved moisture conditions, while Argentina received a favourable combination of rain, sunshine and above-normal temperatures for planting and early crop development.
By Friday, Argentine corn planting was estimated at 51.2%, well ahead of average, while soybean planting reached 17.8%, above both last year and the 13.6% average pace. CONAB left Brazilian soybean production unchanged at 181.6 MMT.
This favourable start is important because tighter US soybean stocks have increased the market’s dependence on normal South American yields.
Wheat Struggles With Heavy Supply
Wheat fundamentals remained considerably weaker than corn and soybeans. USDA raised US ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 743 million and increased global production by more than 5 MMT. World carryout rose by 4.78 MMT to 280.82 MMT, with larger crops in Argentina, Australia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
Demand also disappointed. Friday’s US export sales were only 182,844 MT, a marketing-year low and 60.46% below the same week last year. Year-to-date commitments remain 29% lower than last year against USDA’s forecast for a 17% decline.
These factors drove December Chicago wheat to a nine-month low during Thursday’s sell-off before Friday’s rebound.
Black Sea Risk Prevents a Deeper Wheat Sell-Off
Geopolitics repeatedly challenged the bearish wheat balance. Talks involving the US, Russia and Ukraine produced some progress, including a prisoner swap, but no breakthrough on either a ceasefire or reopening the Black Sea for agricultural shipments.
By Friday, the rebound in wheat suggested reduced confidence that a second round of talks would quickly normalise Black Sea trade. Ukrainian wheat exports stood at 4.11 MMT as of November 13, down 39% year on year. Russian grain exports through seaports were 2.8 MMT in October, down 56%, while 2026/27 shipments of 9 MMT were 54% below last year.
Higher global stocks continue to cap rallies, but persistent Black Sea disruption remains the clearest source of upside risk.
Positioning Amplifies the Week’s Moves
Speculative positioning added volatility. Early in the week, money managers sold nearly 79,000 corn contracts and flipped to a net short position for the first time in four months. Wheat funds also carried a combined short of around 105,000 contracts, the largest in nine months.
In soybeans, funds had cut their combined long position to 285,000 contracts ahead of USDA, but buying returned after Tuesday’s report and the combined long recovered to around 294,000 contracts later in the week.
Wheat Futures
Dec ’26 CBOT wheat closed Friday at $5.93 1/4/bu, up 9 cents on the day and 2 cents for the week. Dec ’26 KC wheat finished the week down 3 3/4 cents, while Dec ’26 Minneapolis wheat gained 10 3/4 cents. The market remains divided between bearish global stocks and Black Sea supply risk.
Corn Futures
Dec ’26 corn closed Friday at $4.45 1/2/bu, up 3 cents on the day and 4 cents for the week. The USDA production cut and strong late-week export demand strengthened the downside floor, although large South American crop expectations continue to limit upside potential.
Soybean Futures
Nov ’26 soybeans expired Friday at $12.43/bu, up 16 cents on the session. Jan ’27 soybeans gained 37 3/4 cents for the week, making soybeans the clear outperformer. Dec ’26 soybean meal rose $10.60 for the week, while Dec ’26 soybean oil gained 151 points. Tightened US stocks, stronger export assumptions and continued Chinese demand drove the advance.