On Wednesday wheat and corn prices in Chicago rose moderately, and that of soybeans dropped slightly. In Paris, rapeseed and wheat prices rose and corn remained stable.

Saudi Arabia is making a good progress on its plan to end its oil dependency and will not be bothered if the oil price drops to $ 40 for a barrel in 2020, said the finance minister Mohammed Al Jadaan quoted by CNN Money . "It will not matter for us if the price is 40, 45, 50 or 55 dollars then, because we will already get along  the way to be independent of the price of oil," the minister said. "We plan to completely end this dependency we have lived for the last 40-50 years in. Hopefully, by 2030, we will not care if the price of oil is zero. " said Al Jadaan during the his interview in Jeddah.On Wednesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Saudi Arabia could slow the pace of austerity measures to soften the effects on growth in the short term. The Riyadh regime expects a budget deficit of 7.7% of the GDP in 2017 compared to 11.5% last year. The IMF calculates that the monarchy will need oil prices of $ 84 for a barrel to balance the budget in 2017. That next year's value is $ 74 for a barrel.

The depreciating US currency gives an ever greater advantage to US-produced agricultural commodities on world markets. A bright example of this was the yesterday's wheat purchase auction in Egypt. 295,000 tonnes of wheat were purchased, incl. 60 000 tonnes of Russian wheat, 60 000 tonnes of Ukrainian  and 115 000 tonnes of US wheat. The price range was within 207.18 - 208.74 USD/mt, C&F. It is the third time for the season the US sells wheat to Egypt at a GASC auction. Indeed, competition on world wheat markets is more than great. The US dollar was the main reason for wheat and corn to show some rise in prices yesterday in Chicago.

In the last days Indian ports have accumulated 1.8 mln. tonnes of imported wheat. Harvest campaign is currently running in the country. Local wheat is known by its very good quality and millers prefer it in comparison to the imported. For now India is out of the world market. It will return to it if there is growth of the domestic prices , but it has to be big enough to overcome the import duty of 25%.

Weather conditions in the United States continue to be quite humid in places. New mass rainfalls are expected during the weekend, which will improve conditions for the development of wheat diseases. In case of more rainfalls, wheat will not be of good quality this season. This, however, immediately gives the green light to corn and soybeans, which will need moisture in the coming months. The market was again talking about greater damage to winter wheat in Kansas caused by the snowfalls two weeks ago. It will take time for a more accurate assessment of the damage.

Another important currency ratio is the value of the Brazilian real to the US dollar. The fact that the Brazilian currency is strong now slows the flow of soybeans from Brazil to world markets. Now soybean prices in Brazil are low, which forces farmers to temporarily hold back their production in anticipation of more favorable offers. In the coming days, Brazilian customs workers will strike, which will cause soybean prices to remain stable or to rise. It seems now that the soybean market in the US lacks enough sellers and in Brazil farmers are waiting. At the same time, China continues to buy soybeans actively. The Chinese do not want to be surprised by a reduced global supply. They must have some stocks that are sufficient buffer for such situations.

Analysts from Abiove raised the forecast for soybean crop in Brazil to 112.5 mln. tonnes from 111 mln. tonnes in the previous forecast and export to 61.7 mln. tonnes.

Rainfalls return to Argentina again. In the coming days it will be quite rainy in the country. Right now it is the height of the soybean and corn harvesting campaign. In Argentina last week, farmers harvested 18% of the areas under soybean cultivation and reached a total of 66%, which is 15% more than the previous year. While the rainfalls do not affect the corn as much, they affect the ripe rapesseds a lot. We will definitely see a decrease in the quality of soybeans not yet harvested. With prolonged rainfalls there will be a reduction of the quantities. Recent estimates of soybean crop in Argentina are in the range of 57.5 mln. tonnes, which is very high figure. A drop of 0.5-1 mln. tonnes will not affect the market.

Crude oil stocks in the United States fell by 2.75 mln. barrels last week and gasoline stocks by 1 mln. barrels.

Wheat prices - yesterday wheat futures in Chicago rose by 2.75 cents / bushel. Export sales of US wheat for the past week are expected to be between 0 - 200,000 tonnes for old crop and 200,000-400,000 tonnes for new crop. The sowing of spring wheat in Russia goes much slower than last year -33.91%.

Soybean prices - yesterday soybean futures in Chicago fell by 1.25 cents / bushel. Export sales of US soybeans are expected to amount to 200,000-400,000 tonnes for old crop and 0-200,000 tonnes for new crop. Sales of soybean meal  -  50 - 250 000 tonnes and of soybean oil 0 - 32 000 tonnes. Lanworth analysts estimate the average soybean yield in the US for the new season of 46.8 bushels / acre, and the crop of 111.25 mln. tonnes.

Corn prices – yesterday, corn futures in Chicago rose by 3.5 - 3.75 cents / bushel. Export sales of US corn will be 500,000-750,000 tonnes of old crop and 50,000-250,000 tonnes of new crop. In the past week, ethanol production in the US increased by 21,000 barrels per day to 1,027 mln. barrels per day. This is the biggest weekly production for the last 1.5 months. Ethanol stocks in the country are up by 359,000 barrels to 23,414 mln. barrels. From the beginning of the season until now, 100.51 mln. tonnes of corn have been used in the US for production of ethanol. According to Lanworth’s forecats the average US corn yield for the new season will be 166.9 bushels / acre and crop 355.45 mln. tonnes. This forecast seems to indicate the light at the end of the tunnel !!!!